Football · England National League North · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Oxford City vs Merthyr Town

Team pages: Oxford City · Merthyr Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Oxford City1.72

Merthyr Town1.09

1X2

52% 25% 23%

Oxford City Draw Merthyr Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Oxford City 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLWDWD

Merthyr Town 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDLDDL

Head-to-head

Oxford City 0–1–1 Merthyr Town (2 last)

Merthyr Town1-1Oxford City
Oxford City1-3Merthyr Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oxford City 1589 · Merthyr Town 1483

	Oxford City	Draw	Merthyr Town
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oxford City (rating 1589 vs 1483).
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oxford City	Merthyr Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.6	3.3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.75

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +12’	1.73	3.75	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Oxford City 0–1–1 Merthyr Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 England National League North	Merthyr Town	1-1 HT 1-0	Oxford City
26/12/25 England National League North	Oxford City	1-3 HT 0-1	Merthyr Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	12	8	2	2	24	7	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	22	8	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	21	18	23
5	Kings Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
6	Hednesford	13	6	3	4	23	19	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	15	12	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	23	23	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	16	16	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	14	11	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Worksop	13	5	2	6	15	20	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	14	13	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	15	16	15
19	Radcliffe FC	13	5	0	8	16	21	15
20	Brackley	13	4	3	6	15	24	15
21	AFC Telford	13	3	4	6	13	20	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	12	26	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oxford City	Merthyr Town
Marine	1-1 D	1-2 L
Morecambe	1-1 D	1-3 L
Chorley	4-0 W	1-1 D
Buxton	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Oxford City (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oxford City

DWLWWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Marine England National League North	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
10/10	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
26/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	2-0	3-0	8	4	W
08/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
05/09	Chorley England National League North	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
31/08	Worksop England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
28/08	Buxton England National League North	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
22/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	3-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Merthyr Town

DDLWWDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Morecambe England National League North	0-1	1-3	10	6	L
17/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
10/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
26/09	Marine England National League North	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
12/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
08/09	Chester England National League North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
31/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
29/08	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
22/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	7	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oxford City win (52%). Probabilities: Oxford City 52%, draw 25%, Merthyr Town 23%.

How many goals are expected in Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Oxford City 1.72 · Merthyr Town 1.09), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.