Football · England National League North · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Worksop vs Brackley

Team pages: Worksop · Brackley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Worksop1.86

Brackley1.27

1X2

50% 25% 25%

Worksop Draw Brackley

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Worksop 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWDDW

Brackley 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWWLLD

Head-to-head

Worksop 1–0 Brackley (1 last)

Brackley0-2Worksop

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worksop 1481 · Brackley 1472

	Worksop	Draw	Brackley
Our model	50%	25%	25%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worksop	Brackley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	2.2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:25 +8’	1.80	3.60	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Worksop 1–0–0 Brackley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/09/22 England FA Cup Qualification	Brackley	0-2	Worksop

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oxford City	13	8	3	2	25	8	27
2	Hereford FC	13	8	2	3	24	8	26
3	South Shields	13	8	2	3	22	18	26
4	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
5	Chester	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
6	Buxton	14	7	2	5	26	23	23
7	Bedford Town	13	7	1	5	17	16	22
8	Hednesford	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
9	Kings Lynn Town	14	6	3	5	22	21	21
10	Morecambe	13	6	2	5	19	12	20
11	Chorley	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
12	Worksop	14	6	2	6	20	20	20
13	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
14	Spalding United	13	5	3	5	16	13	18
15	Marine	13	5	1	7	15	15	16
16	Harborough Town	13	4	4	5	12	16	16
17	AFC Telford	14	4	4	6	14	20	16
18	Brackley	14	4	4	6	17	26	16
19	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
20	Merthyr Town	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
21	Radcliffe FC	14	5	0	9	16	24	15
22	Darlington 1883	14	3	2	9	17	25	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	13	1	4	8	12	27	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worksop	Brackley
Harborough Town	1-1 D	1-0 W
Buxton	2-2 D	0-5 L
Morecambe	2-1 W	0-3 L
Spalding United	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worksop

LLWLWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	2-0	5-0	9	1	W
24/10	Harborough Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
17/10	Buxton England National League North	2-0	2-2	6	6	D
10/10	Morecambe England National League North	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
26/09	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-4	2	3	L
12/09	Southport England National League North	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
08/09	Bedford Town England National League North	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
05/09	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
31/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
29/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-2	1-3	5	5	L

Brackley

DWLLDWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Spalding United England National League North	0-1	2-2	1	4	D
24/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
17/10	Hednesford England National League North	1-3	2-3	8	5	L
10/10	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
29/09	South Shields England National League North	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
26/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
12/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-1	0-3	1	7	L
08/09	Buxton England National League North	0-1	0-5	2	1	L
05/09	Harborough Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
31/08	Chorley England National League North	1-0	2-2	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worksop vs Brackley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Worksop win (50%). Probabilities: Worksop 50%, draw 25%, Brackley 25%.

How many goals are expected in Worksop vs Brackley?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Worksop 1.86 · Brackley 1.27), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Worksop vs Brackley?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.