Football · England National League North · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Telford vs Darlington 1883

Team pages: AFC Telford · Darlington 1883

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

AFC Telford1.64

Darlington 18831.21

1X2

47% 26% 28%

AFC Telford Draw Darlington 1883

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Telford 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLLWWDLL

Darlington 1883 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLLDD

Head-to-head

AFC Telford 2–2–2 Darlington 1883 (6 last)

AFC Telford1-1Darlington 1883
Darlington 18830-6AFC Telford
Darlington 18832-2AFC Telford
Darlington 18833-1AFC Telford
AFC Telford1-4Darlington 1883
AFC Telford5-0Darlington 1883

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Telford 1460 · Darlington 1883 1457

	AFC Telford	Draw	Darlington 1883
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Telford	Darlington 1883
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.5	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	1.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:48 +30’	1.91	3.60	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Telford 2–2–2 Darlington 1883

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England National League North	AFC Telford	1-1 HT 0-0	Darlington 1883
11/10/25 England FA Cup Qualification	Darlington 1883	0-6 HT 0-4	AFC Telford
25/08/25 England National League North	Darlington 1883	2-2 HT 2-0	AFC Telford
04/02/23 England National League North	Darlington 1883	3-1 HT 1-1	AFC Telford
01/11/22 England National League North	AFC Telford	1-4 HT 0-2	Darlington 1883
22/01/22 England National League North	AFC Telford	5-0 HT 1-0	Darlington 1883

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
5	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
6	Kings Lynn Town	11	6	1	4	21	15	19
7	Hebburn Town	11	5	3	3	16	19	18
8	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
9	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
10	Buxton	11	5	1	5	18	19	16
11	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
12	Hednesford	11	4	3	4	18	17	15
13	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
14	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
15	Worksop	11	5	0	6	12	17	15
16	Brackley	11	4	3	4	13	20	15
17	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
18	Merthyr Town	11	3	5	3	13	12	14
19	Scarborough Athletic	11	3	3	5	16	16	12
20	Radcliffe FC	11	3	0	8	13	21	9
20	Southport	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
22	AFC Telford	11	2	3	6	9	17	9
23	Darlington 1883	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Telford	Darlington 1883
Chorley	1-2 L	2-5 L
Kings Lynn Town	0-5 L	0-2 L
Harborough Town	0-0 D	2-4 L
Bedford Town	0-1 L	3-2 W
Merthyr Town	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Telford

LDDLLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
26/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
12/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
08/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
05/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	0	W
31/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
18/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Worksop England National League North	0-1	1-2	5	5	L

Darlington 1883

WLLLWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
26/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Marine England National League North	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
08/09	Chorley England National League North	0-3	2-5	7	6	L
05/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
31/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Harborough Town England National League North	2-1	2-4	2	0	L
18/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
15/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	3-2	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Telford vs Darlington 1883?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Telford win (47%). Probabilities: AFC Telford 47%, draw 26%, Darlington 1883 28%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Telford vs Darlington 1883?

The model expects 2.85 goals (AFC Telford 1.64 · Darlington 1883 1.21), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Telford vs Darlington 1883?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.