Football · England National League North · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: Buxton vs Worksop
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.22Total
Buxton1.94
Worksop1.27
1X2
Buxton
Draw
Worksop
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Buxton
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Worksop
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Buxton
2–1–0
Worksop
(3 last)
- Worksop1-2Buxton
- Buxton3-1Worksop
- Worksop0-0Buxton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Buxton 1500 · Worksop 1453
| Buxton | Draw | Worksop | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Buxton (rating 1500 vs 1453).
- H2H favours Buxton: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Buxton | Worksop | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.6 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Buxton 2–1–0 Worksop
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 England National League North | Worksop | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Buxton |
| 30/12/25 England National League North | Buxton | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Worksop |
| 16/07/24 Club Friendly List | Worksop | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Buxton |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macclesfield | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Hereford FC | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 23 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Chester | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | South Shields | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 20 |
| 6 | Kings Lynn Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 19 |
| 7 | Hebburn Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 18 |
| 8 | Spalding United | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
| 9 | Chorley | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| 10 | Buxton | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 16 |
| 11 | Bedford Town | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 12 | Hednesford | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 15 |
| 13 | Marine | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 15 |
| 14 | Harborough Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| 15 | Worksop | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 15 |
| 16 | Brackley | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 15 |
| 17 | Morecambe | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| 19 | Scarborough Athletic | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 12 |
| 20 | Radcliffe FC | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
| 20 | Southport | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
| 22 | AFC Telford | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 9 |
| 23 | Darlington 1883 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 8 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Buxton | Worksop |
|---|---|---|
| Chester | 3-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Morecambe | 0-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Oxford City | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Hebburn Town | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Bedford Town | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Southport | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Buxton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Kings Lynn Town England National League North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | South Shields England National League North |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Chester England National League North |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 08/09 | Brackley England National League North |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Morecambe England National League North |
0-0 | 0-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 31/08 | Merthyr Town England National League North |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/08 | Oxford City England National League North |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Hebburn Town England National League North |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/08 | Bedford Town England National League North |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 15/08 | Southport England National League North |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
Worksop
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Morecambe England National League North |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/09 | Chester England National League North |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Southport England National League North |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 08/09 | Bedford Town England National League North |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Marine England National League North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Oxford City England National League North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Spalding United England National League North |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Hereford FC England National League North |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/08 | Hebburn Town England National League North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | AFC Telford England National League North |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Buxton vs Worksop?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Buxton win (52%). Probabilities: Buxton 52%, draw 24%, Worksop 24%.
How many goals are expected in Buxton vs Worksop?
The model expects 3.22 goals (Buxton 1.94 · Worksop 1.27), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Buxton vs Worksop?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.