Football · England National League North · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hednesford vs Brackley

Team pages: Hednesford · Brackley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Hednesford1.75

Brackley1.22

1X2

49% 26% 26%

Hednesford Draw Brackley

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hednesford 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWDLWLWW

Brackley 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLLDWW

Head-to-head

Hednesford 1–1–2 Brackley (4 last)

Hednesford0-2Brackley
Brackley1-1Hednesford
Brackley1-0Hednesford
Hednesford4-1Brackley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hednesford 1504 · Brackley 1480

	Hednesford	Draw	Brackley
Our model	49%	26%	26%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Brackley: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hednesford	Brackley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:43 +35’	1.83	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hednesford 1–1–2 Brackley

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/16 England National League North	Hednesford	0-2 HT 0-2	Brackley
19/09/15 England National League North	Brackley	1-1 HT 1-1	Hednesford
25/04/15 England National League North	Brackley	1-0 HT 0-0	Hednesford
21/02/15 England National League North	Hednesford	4-1 HT 1-1	Brackley

Standings · England National League North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
5	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
6	Kings Lynn Town	11	6	1	4	21	15	19
7	Hebburn Town	11	5	3	3	16	19	18
8	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
9	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
10	Buxton	11	5	1	5	18	19	16
11	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
12	Hednesford	11	4	3	4	18	17	15
13	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
14	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
15	Worksop	11	5	0	6	12	17	15
16	Brackley	11	4	3	4	13	20	15
17	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
18	Merthyr Town	11	3	5	3	13	12	14
19	Scarborough Athletic	11	3	3	5	16	16	12
20	Radcliffe FC	11	3	0	8	13	21	9
20	Southport	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
22	AFC Telford	11	2	3	6	9	17	9
23	Darlington 1883	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hednesford	Brackley
Hebburn Town	1-2 L	1-1 D
Kings Lynn Town	3-2 W	0-2 L
South Shields	0-1 L	3-2 W
Spennymoor Town	1-1 D	2-1 W
Harborough Town	2-1 W	1-0 W
Scarborough Athletic	3-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Brackley (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hednesford

LDDWDLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
26/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	3-1	4-1	8	5	W
12/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
08/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
05/09	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
31/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
28/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/08	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
18/08	Southport England National League North	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-1	3-4	7	6	L

Brackley

DLLDWLLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
29/09	South Shields England National League North	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
26/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
12/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-1	0-3	1	7	L
08/09	Buxton England National League North	0-1	0-5	2	1	L
05/09	Harborough Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
31/08	Chorley England National League North	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
22/08	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
18/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
15/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hednesford vs Brackley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hednesford win (49%). Probabilities: Hednesford 49%, draw 26%, Brackley 26%.

How many goals are expected in Hednesford vs Brackley?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Hednesford 1.75 · Brackley 1.22), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hednesford vs Brackley?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.