Football · England National League North · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Merthyr Town vs Kings Lynn Town

Team pages: Merthyr Town · Kings Lynn Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Merthyr Town1.39

Kings Lynn Town1.34

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Merthyr Town Draw Kings Lynn Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Merthyr Town 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Kings Lynn Town 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Merthyr Town 1–3–2 Kings Lynn Town (6 last)

Merthyr Town1-0Kings Lynn Town
Kings Lynn Town4-0Merthyr Town
Kings Lynn Town0-0Merthyr Town
Merthyr Town0-1Kings Lynn Town
Merthyr Town1-1Kings Lynn Town
Kings Lynn Town1-1Merthyr Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Merthyr Town 1490 · Kings Lynn Town 1522

	Merthyr Town	Draw	Kings Lynn Town
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kings Lynn Town: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Merthyr Town	Kings Lynn Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:20 +5’	2.35	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Merthyr Town 1–3–2 Kings Lynn Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/26 England National League North	Merthyr Town	1-0 HT 1-0	Kings Lynn Town
30/08/25 England National League North	Kings Lynn Town	4-0 HT 2-0	Merthyr Town
07/04/18 England Southern League Premier	Kings Lynn Town	0-0	Merthyr Town
23/12/17 England Southern League Premier	Merthyr Town	0-1	Kings Lynn Town
24/01/17 England Southern League Premier	Merthyr Town	1-1 HT 1-1	Kings Lynn Town
06/08/16 England Southern League Premier	Kings Lynn Town	1-1	Merthyr Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
5	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
6	Kings Lynn Town	11	6	1	4	21	15	19
7	Hebburn Town	11	5	3	3	16	19	18
8	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
9	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
10	Buxton	11	5	1	5	18	19	16
11	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
12	Hednesford	11	4	3	4	18	17	15
13	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
14	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
15	Worksop	11	5	0	6	12	17	15
16	Brackley	11	4	3	4	13	20	15
17	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
18	Merthyr Town	11	3	5	3	13	12	14
19	Scarborough Athletic	11	3	3	5	16	16	12
20	Radcliffe FC	11	3	0	8	13	21	9
20	Southport	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
22	AFC Telford	11	2	3	6	9	17	9
23	Darlington 1883	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Merthyr Town	Kings Lynn Town
Darlington 1883	1-1 D	2-0 W
Marine	1-2 L	1-4 L
Scarborough Athletic	0-0 D	3-1 W
Chester	1-0 W	0-2 L
Buxton	1-2 L	1-0 W
Chorley	1-1 D	2-0 W
AFC Telford	2-2 D	5-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kings Lynn Town (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Merthyr Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
26/09	Marine England National League North	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
12/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
08/09	Chester England National League North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
31/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
29/08	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
22/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	7	L

Kings Lynn Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Buxton England National League North	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/09	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	5-0	4	4	W
12/09	Chorley England National League North	1-0	2-0	0	7	W
08/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
05/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
31/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
29/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	2-1	2-4	4	2	L
22/08	Marine England National League North	1-0	1-4	6	3	L
18/08	Brackley England National League North	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
15/08	Chester England National League North	0-2	0-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Merthyr Town vs Kings Lynn Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Merthyr Town win (38%). Probabilities: Merthyr Town 38%, draw 27%, Kings Lynn Town 35%.

How many goals are expected in Merthyr Town vs Kings Lynn Town?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Merthyr Town 1.39 · Kings Lynn Town 1.34), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Merthyr Town vs Kings Lynn Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.