Football · England National League North · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hebburn Town vs Scarborough Athletic

Team pages: Hebburn Town · Scarborough Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Hebburn Town1.56

Scarborough Athletic1.47

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Hebburn Town Draw Scarborough Athletic

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hebburn Town 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Scarborough Athletic 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hebburn Town 1477 · Scarborough Athletic 1500

	Hebburn Town	Draw	Scarborough Athletic
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hebburn Town	Scarborough Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +9’	2.30	3.50	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	11	7	3	1	17	9	24
2	Hereford FC	11	7	2	2	22	6	23
3	Oxford City	11	7	2	2	21	7	23
4	Chester	11	6	2	3	14	9	20
5	South Shields	11	6	2	3	18	17	20
6	Kings Lynn Town	11	6	1	4	21	15	19
7	Hebburn Town	11	5	3	3	16	19	18
8	Spalding United	11	5	2	4	14	9	17
9	Chorley	11	5	2	4	18	18	17
10	Buxton	11	5	1	5	18	19	16
11	Bedford Town	11	5	1	5	14	15	16
12	Hednesford	11	4	3	4	18	17	15
13	Marine	11	5	0	6	13	12	15
14	Harborough Town	11	4	3	4	11	12	15
15	Worksop	11	5	0	6	12	17	15
16	Brackley	11	4	3	4	13	20	15
17	Morecambe	11	4	2	5	15	11	14
18	Merthyr Town	11	3	5	3	13	12	14
19	Scarborough Athletic	11	3	3	5	16	16	12
20	Radcliffe FC	11	3	0	8	13	21	9
20	Southport	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
22	AFC Telford	11	2	3	6	9	17	9
23	Darlington 1883	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
24	Spennymoor Town	11	1	4	6	12	23	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hebburn Town	Scarborough Athletic
Hednesford	2-1 W	4-3 W
Radcliffe FC	1-5 L	1-4 L
Macclesfield	0-3 L	0-0 D
Kings Lynn Town	4-2 W	1-3 L
Brackley	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Scarborough Athletic (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hebburn Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Oxford City England National League North	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
26/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
12/09	Hednesford England National League North	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
08/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-3	1-5	5	4	L
05/09	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
29/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-2	4-2	5	2	W
22/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
18/08	Worksop England National League North	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
15/08	Brackley England National League North	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Scarborough Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-1	1-4	2	5	L
26/09	Brackley England National League North	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
12/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
08/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
05/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-1	0	0	L
31/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
29/08	Southport England National League North	3-0	5-1	5	1	W
22/08	Chorley England National League North	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
18/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	3-0	3-0	6	4	W
15/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	4-3	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hebburn Town vs Scarborough Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hebburn Town win (39%). Probabilities: Hebburn Town 39%, draw 26%, Scarborough Athletic 35%.

How many goals are expected in Hebburn Town vs Scarborough Athletic?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Hebburn Town 1.56 · Scarborough Athletic 1.47), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hebburn Town vs Scarborough Athletic?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.