Football · England National League North · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Morecambe vs Darlington 1883

Team pages: Morecambe · Darlington 1883

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Morecambe1.93

Darlington 18831.19

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Morecambe Draw Darlington 1883

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Morecambe 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Darlington 1883 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Morecambe 1–0 Darlington 1883 (1 last)

Morecambe3-0Darlington 1883

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Morecambe 1533 · Darlington 1883 1451

	Morecambe	Draw	Darlington 1883
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Morecambe (rating 1533 vs 1451).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Morecambe	Darlington 1883
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.8	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.80

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +4’	1.67	3.80	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Morecambe 1–0–0 Darlington 1883

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/10/26 England FA Cup Qualification	Morecambe	3-0 HT 0-0	Darlington 1883

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	12	8	2	2	24	7	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	22	8	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	21	18	23
5	Kings Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
6	Hednesford	13	6	3	4	23	19	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	15	12	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	23	23	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	16	16	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	14	11	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Worksop	13	5	2	6	15	20	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	14	13	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	15	16	15
19	Radcliffe FC	13	5	0	8	16	21	15
20	Brackley	13	4	3	6	15	24	15
21	AFC Telford	13	3	4	6	13	20	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	12	26	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Morecambe	Darlington 1883
Merthyr Town	3-1 W	1-1 D
AFC Telford	2-1 W	1-2 L
Radcliffe FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Morecambe (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Morecambe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
10/10	Worksop England National League North	0-2	1-2	2	4	L
26/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	7	W
08/09	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
05/09	Buxton England National League North	0-0	4-0	4	2	W
31/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
28/08	AFC Telford England National League North	2-0	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	8	L
18/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L

Darlington 1883

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
17/10	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
10/10	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	8	D
26/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Marine England National League North	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
08/09	Chorley England National League North	0-3	2-5	7	6	L
05/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
31/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Harborough Town England National League North	2-1	2-4	2	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Morecambe win (54%). Probabilities: Morecambe 54%, draw 24%, Darlington 1883 22%.

How many goals are expected in Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Morecambe 1.93 · Darlington 1883 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.