Football · England National League North · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Spalding United vs Brackley

Team pages: Spalding United · Brackley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Spalding United1.71

Brackley1.08

1X2

51% 25% 23%

Spalding United Draw Brackley

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Spalding United 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDWWWLLL

Brackley 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLLDWWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spalding United 1511 · Brackley 1467

	Spalding United	Draw	Brackley
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spalding United (rating 1511 vs 1467).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spalding United	Brackley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.6	2.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:25 +4’	1.73	3.60	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England National League North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	12	8	2	2	24	7	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	22	8	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	18	11	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	21	18	23
5	Kings Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	22	16	21
6	Hednesford	13	6	3	4	23	19	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	15	12	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	23	23	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	16	16	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	18	23	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	18	12	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	14	11	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	20	21	17
14	Worksop	13	5	2	6	15	20	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	14	13	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	19	18	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	15	16	15
19	Radcliffe FC	13	5	0	8	16	21	15
20	Brackley	13	4	3	6	15	24	15
21	AFC Telford	13	3	4	6	13	20	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	17	24	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	13	23	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	12	26	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spalding United	Brackley
Hednesford	0-2 L	2-3 L
Chorley	1-2 L	2-2 D
Spennymoor Town	3-1 W	2-1 W
South Shields	1-1 D	3-2 W
Macclesfield	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Brackley (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spalding United

DLWDWWWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
10/10	Marine England National League North	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
26/09	Chorley England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
12/09	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
08/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-1	3-1	7	6	W
05/09	Southport England National League North	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
31/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
29/08	Worksop England National League North	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
22/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Brackley

LDWLLDWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
17/10	Hednesford England National League North	1-3	2-3	8	5	L
10/10	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
29/09	South Shields England National League North	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
26/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
12/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-1	0-3	1	7	L
08/09	Buxton England National League North	0-1	0-5	2	1	L
05/09	Harborough Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
31/08	Chorley England National League North	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
22/08	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spalding United vs Brackley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spalding United win (51%). Probabilities: Spalding United 51%, draw 25%, Brackley 23%.

How many goals are expected in Spalding United vs Brackley?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Spalding United 1.71 · Brackley 1.08), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Spalding United vs Brackley?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.