Football · England National League North · 10/10, 16:00
Prediction: Chester vs Bedford Town
Team pages: Chester · Bedford Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Chester1.89
Bedford Town0.89
1X2
Chester
Draw
Bedford Town
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Chester
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Bedford Town
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chester
1–1
Bedford Town
(2 last)
- Bedford Town1-2Chester
- Chester1-2Bedford Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chester 1516 · Bedford Town 1540
| Chester | Draw | Bedford Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chester | Bedford Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6 | 3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chester 1–0–1 Bedford Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 England National League North | Bedford Town | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Chester |
| 25/10/25 England National League North | Chester | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Bedford Town |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 17 |
| 8 | Kings Lynn Town | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 12 |
| 19 | Southport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 9 |
| 20 | AFC Telford | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 9 |
| 21 | Brackley | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor Town | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe FC | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chester | Bedford Town |
|---|---|---|
| Worksop | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Buxton | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Hereford FC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Spalding United | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Darlington 1883 | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Chester (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chester
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Worksop England National League North |
1-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Buxton England National League North |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 08/09 | Merthyr Town England National League North |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 05/09 | Hebburn Town England National League North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 31/08 | Morecambe England National League North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Hereford FC England National League North |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Spalding United England National League North |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/08 | Darlington 1883 England National League North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Kings Lynn Town England National League North |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Chorley England National League North |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Bedford Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Hereford FC England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 12/09 | Spalding United England National League North |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 08/09 | Worksop England National League North |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Radcliffe FC England National League North |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | AFC Telford England National League North |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Spennymoor Town England National League North |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Southport England National League North |
1-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/08 | Buxton England National League North |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 15/08 | Darlington 1883 England National League North |
1-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Oxford City England National League North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chester vs Bedford Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chester win (60%). Probabilities: Chester 60%, draw 23%, Bedford Town 17%.
How many goals are expected in Chester vs Bedford Town?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Chester 1.89 · Bedford Town 0.89), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Chester vs Bedford Town?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.