Football · England National League North · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Chorley vs AFC Telford

Team pages: Chorley · AFC Telford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Chorley1.64

AFC Telford1.46

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Chorley Draw AFC Telford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chorley 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDLWLW

AFC Telford 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLWWDL

Head-to-head

Chorley 3–1–2 AFC Telford (6 last)

AFC Telford2-2Chorley
Chorley3-1AFC Telford
Chorley1-0AFC Telford
AFC Telford1-0Chorley
Chorley1-0AFC Telford
AFC Telford3-0Chorley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chorley 1540 · AFC Telford 1461

	Chorley	Draw	AFC Telford
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chorley (rating 1540 vs 1461).
H2H favours Chorley: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chorley	AFC Telford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +4’	2.20	3.40	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chorley 3–1–2 AFC Telford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/02/26 England National League North	AFC Telford	2-2 HT 2-0	Chorley
06/09/25 England National League North	Chorley	3-1 HT 1-1	AFC Telford
31/01/23 England National League North	Chorley	1-0 HT 1-0	AFC Telford
06/08/22 England National League North	AFC Telford	1-0 HT 1-0	Chorley
23/04/22 England National League North	Chorley	1-0 HT 1-0	AFC Telford
21/08/21 England National League North	AFC Telford	3-0 HT 0-0	Chorley

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	10	7	2	1	22	5	23
2	Macclesfield	10	6	3	1	13	6	21
3	Oxford City	10	6	2	2	18	7	20
4	South Shields	9	6	2	1	13	10	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	5	3	2	16	16	18
6	Spalding United	10	5	2	3	14	8	17
7	Chester	10	5	2	3	13	9	17
8	Kings Lynn Town	10	5	1	4	20	15	16
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18	18	16
10	Bedford Town	10	5	1	4	14	14	16
11	Morecambe	10	4	2	4	14	9	14
12	Chorley	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	3	3	4	15	12	12
15	Hednesford	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
16	Marine	10	4	0	6	12	12	12
17	Harborough Town	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
18	Worksop	10	4	0	6	10	16	12
19	Southport	10	2	3	5	13	20	9
20	AFC Telford	10	2	3	5	8	15	9
21	Brackley	9	2	3	4	8	17	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	2	1	7	12	21	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	1	4	5	11	21	7
24	Radcliffe FC	10	2	0	8	9	20	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chorley	AFC Telford
Kings Lynn Town	0-2 L	0-5 L
Oxford City	0-4 L	1-0 W
Brackley	2-2 D	1-2 L
Merthyr Town	1-1 D	2-2 D
Scarborough Athletic	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chorley (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chorley

LLWWDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
12/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
08/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	3-0	5-2	7	6	W
05/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
31/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
29/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
18/08	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
15/08	South Shields England National League North	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
08/08	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-2	1	4	L

AFC Telford

LLDDLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
12/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
08/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
05/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	0	W
31/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
18/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Worksop England National League North	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
08/08	Brackley England National League North	0-0	1-2	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chorley vs AFC Telford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chorley win (41%). Probabilities: Chorley 41%, draw 26%, AFC Telford 33%.

How many goals are expected in Chorley vs AFC Telford?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Chorley 1.64 · AFC Telford 1.46), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chorley vs AFC Telford?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.