Football · England National League North · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Darlington 1883 vs Merthyr Town

Team pages: Darlington 1883 · Merthyr Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Darlington 18831.54

Merthyr Town1.54

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Darlington 1883 Draw Merthyr Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Darlington 1883 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWLLLD

Merthyr Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDDLWWDL

Head-to-head

Darlington 1883 1–1 Merthyr Town (2 last)

Darlington 18833-1Merthyr Town
Merthyr Town3-1Darlington 1883

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darlington 1883 1449 · Merthyr Town 1488

	Darlington 1883	Draw	Merthyr Town
Our model	37%	26%	37%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darlington 1883	Merthyr Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	2.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.41
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.61
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.59 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +13’	2.40	3.50	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:56 +106’	2.41	3.61	2.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Darlington 1883 1–0–1 Merthyr Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 England National League North	Darlington 1883	3-1 HT 0-1	Merthyr Town
01/11/25 England National League North	Merthyr Town	3-1 HT 2-0	Darlington 1883

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	10	7	2	1	22	5	23
2	Macclesfield	10	6	3	1	13	6	21
3	Oxford City	10	6	2	2	18	7	20
4	South Shields	10	6	2	2	15	13	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	5	3	2	16	16	18
6	Spalding United	10	5	2	3	14	8	17
7	Chester	10	5	2	3	13	9	17
8	Kings Lynn Town	10	5	1	4	20	15	16
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18	18	16
10	Bedford Town	10	5	1	4	14	14	16
11	Morecambe	10	4	2	4	14	9	14
12	Chorley	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	3	3	4	15	12	12
15	Hednesford	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
16	Marine	10	4	0	6	12	12	12
17	Harborough Town	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
18	Worksop	10	4	0	6	10	16	12
19	Brackley	10	3	3	4	11	19	12
20	Southport	10	2	3	5	13	20	9
21	AFC Telford	10	2	3	5	8	15	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	2	1	7	12	21	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	1	4	5	11	21	7
24	Radcliffe FC	10	2	0	8	9	20	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darlington 1883	Merthyr Town
Marine	1-2 L	1-2 L
Chorley	2-5 L	1-1 D
Macclesfield	1-2 L	2-1 W
Chester	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Merthyr Town (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darlington 1883

LWLLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Marine England National League North	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
08/09	Chorley England National League North	0-3	2-5	7	6	L
05/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
31/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Harborough Town England National League North	2-1	2-4	2	0	L
18/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
15/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
08/08	Worksop England National League North	0-1	1-2	4	2	L

Merthyr Town

WLDDDLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Marine England National League North	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
12/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
08/09	Chester England National League North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
31/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
29/08	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
22/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
08/08	Hednesford England National League North	2-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darlington 1883 vs Merthyr Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Darlington 1883 win (37%). Probabilities: Darlington 1883 37%, draw 26%, Merthyr Town 37%.

How many goals are expected in Darlington 1883 vs Merthyr Town?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Darlington 1883 1.54 · Merthyr Town 1.54), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Darlington 1883 vs Merthyr Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.