Football · England National League North · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Harborough Town vs Southport

Team pages: Harborough Town · Southport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Harborough Town1.84

Southport1.05

1X2

56% 24% 21%

Harborough Town Draw Southport

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Harborough Town 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Southport 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLLWLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harborough Town 1506 · Southport 1449

	Harborough Town	Draw	Southport
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	56%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harborough Town (rating 1506 vs 1449).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harborough Town	Southport
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.6	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.00

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +3’	1.60	4.00	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	10	7	2	1	22	5	23
2	Macclesfield	10	6	3	1	13	6	21
3	Oxford City	10	6	2	2	18	7	20
4	South Shields	9	6	2	1	13	10	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	5	3	2	16	16	18
6	Spalding United	10	5	2	3	14	8	17
7	Chester	10	5	2	3	13	9	17
8	Kings Lynn Town	10	5	1	4	20	15	16
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18	18	16
10	Bedford Town	10	5	1	4	14	14	16
11	Morecambe	10	4	2	4	14	9	14
12	Chorley	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	3	3	4	15	12	12
15	Hednesford	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
16	Marine	10	4	0	6	12	12	12
17	Harborough Town	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
18	Worksop	10	4	0	6	10	16	12
19	Southport	10	2	3	5	13	20	9
20	AFC Telford	10	2	3	5	8	15	9
21	Brackley	9	2	3	4	8	17	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	2	1	7	12	21	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	1	4	5	11	21	7
24	Radcliffe FC	10	2	0	8	9	20	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harborough Town	Southport
Hereford FC	0-3 L	0-1 L
Hednesford	1-2 L	2-2 D
Morecambe	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Southport (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harborough Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
12/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
08/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-3	5	6	L
05/09	Brackley England National League North	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
31/08	Marine England National League North	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
28/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	1-2	8	3	L
22/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-2	4-2	9	0	W
18/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
15/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Southport

LDDWLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	2-0	2-2	9	2	D
12/09	Worksop England National League North	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
08/09	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
31/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
29/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	1-5	2	1	L
22/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
15/08	Buxton England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
08/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-2	1-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harborough Town vs Southport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Harborough Town win (56%). Probabilities: Harborough Town 56%, draw 24%, Southport 21%.

How many goals are expected in Harborough Town vs Southport?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Harborough Town 1.84 · Southport 1.05), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Harborough Town vs Southport?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.