Football · England National League North · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hebburn Town vs Oxford City

Team pages: Hebburn Town · Oxford City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Hebburn Town1.33

Oxford City1.59

1X2

31% 27% 42%

Hebburn Town Draw Oxford City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hebburn Town 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLDLWD

Oxford City 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWWLWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hebburn Town 1503 · Oxford City 1578

	Hebburn Town	Draw	Oxford City
Our model	31%	27%	42%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oxford City (rating 1503 vs 1578).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hebburn Town	Oxford City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +16’	2.88	3.40	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	10	7	2	1	22	5	23
2	Macclesfield	10	6	3	1	13	6	21
3	Oxford City	10	6	2	2	18	7	20
4	South Shields	9	6	2	1	13	10	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	5	3	2	16	16	18
6	Spalding United	10	5	2	3	14	8	17
7	Chester	10	5	2	3	13	9	17
8	Kings Lynn Town	10	5	1	4	20	15	16
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18	18	16
10	Bedford Town	10	5	1	4	14	14	16
11	Morecambe	10	4	2	4	14	9	14
12	Chorley	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	3	3	4	15	12	12
15	Hednesford	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
16	Marine	10	4	0	6	12	12	12
17	Harborough Town	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
18	Worksop	10	4	0	6	10	16	12
19	Southport	10	2	3	5	13	20	9
20	AFC Telford	10	2	3	5	8	15	9
21	Brackley	9	2	3	4	8	17	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	2	1	7	12	21	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	1	4	5	11	21	7
24	Radcliffe FC	10	2	0	8	9	20	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hebburn Town	Oxford City
Radcliffe FC	1-5 L	3-0 W
Buxton	2-1 W	2-3 L
Worksop	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hebburn Town

WDWWWLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
12/09	Hednesford England National League North	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
08/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-3	1-5	5	4	L
05/09	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
29/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-2	4-2	5	2	W
22/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
18/08	Worksop England National League North	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
15/08	Brackley England National League North	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Southport England National League North	2-0	3-1	1	4	W

Oxford City

WWDWLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	2-0	3-0	8	4	W
08/09	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
05/09	Chorley England National League North	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
31/08	Worksop England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
28/08	Buxton England National League North	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
22/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	3-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
08/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hebburn Town vs Oxford City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Oxford City win (42%). Probabilities: Hebburn Town 31%, draw 27%, Oxford City 42%.

How many goals are expected in Hebburn Town vs Oxford City?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Hebburn Town 1.33 · Oxford City 1.59), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hebburn Town vs Oxford City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.