Football · England National League North · 10/10, 16:00
Prediction: Hereford FC vs Hednesford
Team pages: Hereford FC · Hednesford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.13Total
Hereford FC1.89
Hednesford1.25
1X2
Hereford FC
Draw
Hednesford
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Hereford FC
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Hednesford
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hereford FC
0–1
Hednesford
(1 last)
- Hednesford1-0Hereford FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hereford FC 1571 · Hednesford 1476
| Hereford FC | Draw | Hednesford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hereford FC (rating 1571 vs 1476).
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hereford FC | Hednesford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.5 | 1.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5 | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.4 | 4.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hereford FC 0–0–1 Hednesford
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/22 Club Friendly List | Hednesford | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hereford FC |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hereford FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 23 |
| 2 | Macclesfield | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Oxford City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | South Shields | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | Hebburn Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 18 |
| 6 | Spalding United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 17 |
| 7 | Chester | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 17 |
| 8 | Kings Lynn Town | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 16 |
| 9 | Buxton | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 16 |
| 10 | Bedford Town | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 14 |
| 12 | Chorley | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Merthyr Town | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| 14 | Scarborough Athletic | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 12 |
| 15 | Hednesford | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 12 |
| 16 | Marine | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| 17 | Harborough Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| 18 | Worksop | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 12 |
| 19 | Brackley | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 12 |
| 20 | Southport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 9 |
| 21 | AFC Telford | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 9 |
| 22 | Darlington 1883 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 7 |
| 23 | Spennymoor Town | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 7 |
| 24 | Radcliffe FC | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hereford FC | Hednesford |
|---|---|---|
| South Shields | 6-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Harborough Town | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Spennymoor Town | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Southport | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Radcliffe FC | 3-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Hereford FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hereford FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Bedford Town England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 12/09 | South Shields England National League North |
3-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/09 | Harborough Town England National League North |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Spennymoor Town England National League North |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 31/08 | Southport England National League North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Chester England National League North |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Worksop England National League North |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 18/08 | Radcliffe FC England National League North |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marine England National League North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Buxton England National League North |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
Hednesford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Radcliffe FC England National League North |
3-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Hebburn Town England National League North |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 08/09 | Kings Lynn Town England National League North |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | South Shields England National League North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Spennymoor Town England National League North |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 28/08 | Harborough Town England National League North |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | AFC Telford England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 18/08 | Southport England National League North |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
1-1 | 3-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Merthyr Town England National League North |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hereford FC vs Hednesford?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hereford FC win (51%). Probabilities: Hereford FC 51%, draw 25%, Hednesford 24%.
How many goals are expected in Hereford FC vs Hednesford?
The model expects 3.13 goals (Hereford FC 1.89 · Hednesford 1.25), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hereford FC vs Hednesford?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.