Football · England National League North · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Kings Lynn Town vs Buxton

Team pages: Kings Lynn Town · Buxton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Kings Lynn Town1.63

Buxton1.77

1X2

35% 25% 40%

Kings Lynn Town Draw Buxton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Kings Lynn Town 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Buxton 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Kings Lynn Town 4–1–1 Buxton (6 last)

Buxton1-2Kings Lynn Town
Kings Lynn Town3-2Buxton
Buxton0-1Kings Lynn Town
Kings Lynn Town2-0Buxton
Buxton2-2Kings Lynn Town
Kings Lynn Town1-3Buxton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kings Lynn Town 1528 · Buxton 1490

	Kings Lynn Town	Draw	Buxton
Our model	35%	25%	41%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kings Lynn Town: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kings Lynn Town	Buxton
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	2.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.69
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.38 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:25 +4’	2.25	3.50	2.60
12:37 +5’	2.63▲	3.50	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:26 +195’	2.69	3.48	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kings Lynn Town 4–1–1 Buxton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/26 England National League North	Buxton	1-2 HT 0-0	Kings Lynn Town
25/11/25 England National League North	Kings Lynn Town	3-2 HT 0-1	Buxton
22/03/25 England National League North	Buxton	0-1 HT 0-0	Kings Lynn Town
19/10/24 England National League North	Kings Lynn Town	2-0 HT 2-0	Buxton
13/01/24 England National League North	Buxton	2-2 HT 0-2	Kings Lynn Town
07/10/23 England National League North	Kings Lynn Town	1-3 HT 0-0	Buxton

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	10	7	2	1	22	5	23
2	Macclesfield	10	6	3	1	13	6	21
3	Oxford City	10	6	2	2	18	7	20
4	South Shields	10	6	2	2	15	13	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	5	3	2	16	16	18
6	Spalding United	10	5	2	3	14	8	17
7	Chester	10	5	2	3	13	9	17
8	Kings Lynn Town	10	5	1	4	20	15	16
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18	18	16
10	Bedford Town	10	5	1	4	14	14	16
11	Morecambe	10	4	2	4	14	9	14
12	Chorley	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	3	3	4	15	12	12
15	Hednesford	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
16	Marine	10	4	0	6	12	12	12
17	Harborough Town	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
18	Worksop	10	4	0	6	10	16	12
19	Brackley	10	3	3	4	11	19	12
20	Southport	10	2	3	5	13	20	9
21	AFC Telford	10	2	3	5	8	15	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	2	1	7	12	21	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	1	4	5	11	21	7
24	Radcliffe FC	10	2	0	8	9	20	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kings Lynn Town	Buxton
Hebburn Town	2-4 L	1-2 L
Brackley	2-0 W	5-0 W
Chester	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Buxton (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kings Lynn Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	5-0	4	4	W
12/09	Chorley England National League North	1-0	2-0	0	7	W
08/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
05/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
31/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
29/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	2-1	2-4	4	2	L
22/08	Marine England National League North	1-0	1-4	6	3	L
18/08	Brackley England National League North	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
15/08	Chester England National League North	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
08/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Buxton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	South Shields England National League North	0-2	0-4	3	7	L
12/09	Chester England National League North	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
08/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
05/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-4	9	2	L
31/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
28/08	Oxford City England National League North	2-0	3-2	4	4	W
22/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
18/08	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
15/08	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
08/08	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kings Lynn Town vs Buxton?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Buxton win (40%). Probabilities: Kings Lynn Town 35%, draw 25%, Buxton 40%.

How many goals are expected in Kings Lynn Town vs Buxton?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Kings Lynn Town 1.63 · Buxton 1.77), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kings Lynn Town vs Buxton?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.