Football · England National League North · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Worksop vs Morecambe

Team pages: Worksop · Morecambe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Worksop1.19

Morecambe1.36

1X2

32% 28% 40%

Worksop Draw Morecambe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Worksop 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWLWL

Morecambe 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWWLWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worksop 1451 · Morecambe 1532

	Worksop	Draw	Morecambe
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Morecambe (rating 1451 vs 1532).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worksop	Morecambe
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	1.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +11’	2.75	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England National League North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	10	7	2	1	22	5	23
2	Macclesfield	10	6	3	1	13	6	21
3	Oxford City	10	6	2	2	18	7	20
4	South Shields	9	6	2	1	13	10	20
5	Hebburn Town	10	5	3	2	16	16	18
6	Spalding United	10	5	2	3	14	8	17
7	Chester	10	5	2	3	13	9	17
8	Kings Lynn Town	10	5	1	4	20	15	16
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18	18	16
10	Bedford Town	10	5	1	4	14	14	16
11	Morecambe	10	4	2	4	14	9	14
12	Chorley	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
14	Scarborough Athletic	10	3	3	4	15	12	12
15	Hednesford	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
16	Marine	10	4	0	6	12	12	12
17	Harborough Town	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
18	Worksop	10	4	0	6	10	16	12
19	Southport	10	2	3	5	13	20	9
20	AFC Telford	10	2	3	5	8	15	9
21	Brackley	9	2	3	4	8	17	9
22	Darlington 1883	10	2	1	7	12	21	7
23	Spennymoor Town	10	1	4	5	11	21	7
24	Radcliffe FC	10	2	0	8	9	20	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worksop	Morecambe
Chester	1-4 L	1-0 W
Southport	2-0 W	1-2 L
Oxford City	0-1 L	1-1 D
AFC Telford	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Morecambe (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worksop

WWLLLLWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-4	2	3	L
12/09	Southport England National League North	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
08/09	Bedford Town England National League North	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
05/09	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
31/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
29/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-2	1-3	5	5	L
22/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
18/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
15/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	2-1	2	2	W

Morecambe

DLLLWWWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	3-0	3	7	W
08/09	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
05/09	Buxton England National League North	0-0	4-0	4	2	W
31/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
28/08	AFC Telford England National League North	2-0	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	8	L
18/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
15/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worksop vs Morecambe?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Morecambe win (40%). Probabilities: Worksop 32%, draw 28%, Morecambe 40%.

How many goals are expected in Worksop vs Morecambe?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Worksop 1.19 · Morecambe 1.36), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Worksop vs Morecambe?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.