Football · England National League North · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Buxton vs Chester

Team pages: Buxton · Chester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Buxton1.12

Chester1.23

1X2

33% 28% 39%

Buxton Draw Chester

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Buxton 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLWWLW

Chester 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWDLDL

Head-to-head

Buxton 1–1–4 Chester (6 last)

Chester1-0Buxton
Buxton1-2Chester
Chester1-1Buxton
Buxton2-4Chester
Chester0-1Buxton
Buxton1-4Chester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Buxton 1510 · Chester 1543

	Buxton	Draw	Chester
Our model	32%	31%	38%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chester: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Buxton	Chester
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	0.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:20 +8’	2.63	3.40	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Buxton 1–1–4 Chester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England National League North	Chester	1-0 HT 0-0	Buxton
08/11/25 England National League North	Buxton	1-2 HT 1-1	Chester
30/04/25 England National League North	Chester	1-1 HT 1-1	Buxton
11/01/25 England National League North	Buxton	2-4 HT 2-3	Chester
22/10/24 England National League North	Chester	0-1 HT 0-1	Buxton
29/03/24 England National League North	Buxton	1-4 HT 1-1	Chester

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	8	6	1	1	15	4	19
2	Macclesfield	8	5	2	1	11	5	17
3	South Shields	7	5	2	0	9	4	17
4	Oxford City	8	5	1	2	14	6	16
5	Bedford Town	8	5	0	3	12	11	15
6	Spalding United	8	4	2	2	11	5	14
7	Chester	8	4	2	2	8	5	14
8	Hebburn Town	8	4	2	2	13	14	14
9	Buxton	8	4	1	3	15	13	13
10	Merthyr Town	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
11	Chorley	8	3	2	3	14	14	11
12	Harborough Town	8	3	2	3	10	11	11
13	Scarborough Athletic	8	3	1	4	14	11	10
14	Morecambe	8	3	1	4	10	8	10
15	Kings Lynn Town	8	3	1	4	13	15	10
16	Hednesford	8	2	3	3	12	14	9
17	Worksop	8	3	0	5	7	12	9
18	AFC Telford	8	2	2	4	8	10	8
19	Southport	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
20	Brackley	7	2	2	3	7	13	8
21	Marine	8	2	0	6	8	10	6
22	Radcliffe FC	8	2	0	6	8	13	6
23	Darlington 1883	8	2	0	6	10	18	6
24	Spennymoor Town	8	1	2	5	8	18	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Buxton	Chester
Morecambe	0-4 L	0-1 L
Merthyr Town	2-1 W	0-1 L
Hebburn Town	1-2 L	1-1 D
Hereford FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Buxton

WLWDLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
05/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-4	9	2	L
31/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
28/08	Oxford City England National League North	2-0	3-2	4	4	W
22/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
18/08	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
15/08	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
08/08	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
02/05	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
28/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	4-2	6	4	W

Chester

DLWWWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Hereford FC England National League North	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
22/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
15/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	2-0	2-0	11	3	W
08/08	Chorley England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
29/04	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	0	3	L
25/04	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Buxton vs Chester?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chester win (39%). Probabilities: Buxton 33%, draw 28%, Chester 39%.

How many goals are expected in Buxton vs Chester?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Buxton 1.12 · Chester 1.23), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Buxton vs Chester?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.