Football · England National League North · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Marine vs Darlington 1883

Team pages: Marine · Darlington 1883

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Marine1.66

Darlington 18831.49

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Marine Draw Darlington 1883

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Marine 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWWLLL

Darlington 1883 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Marine 2–2–2 Darlington 1883 (6 last)

Darlington 18832-3Marine
Marine1-4Darlington 1883
Darlington 18833-1Marine
Marine0-0Darlington 1883
Marine3-2Darlington 1883
Darlington 18832-2Marine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marine 1477 · Darlington 1883 1397

	Marine	Draw	Darlington 1883
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marine (rating 1477 vs 1397).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marine	Darlington 1883
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.6	1.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:21 +1’	2.20	3.40	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marine 2–2–2 Darlington 1883

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England National League North	Darlington 1883	2-3 HT 1-2	Marine
02/09/25 England National League North	Marine	1-4 HT 0-3	Darlington 1883
08/02/25 England National League North	Darlington 1883	3-1 HT 1-1	Marine
07/09/24 England National League North	Marine	0-0 HT 0-0	Darlington 1883
06/12/16 England FA Trophy	Marine	3-2 HT 1-2	Darlington 1883
27/11/16 England FA Trophy	Darlington 1883	2-2	Marine

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	8	6	1	1	15	4	19
2	Macclesfield	8	5	2	1	11	5	17
3	South Shields	7	5	2	0	9	4	17
4	Oxford City	8	5	1	2	14	6	16
5	Bedford Town	8	5	0	3	12	11	15
6	Spalding United	8	4	2	2	11	5	14
7	Chester	8	4	2	2	8	5	14
8	Hebburn Town	8	4	2	2	13	14	14
9	Buxton	8	4	1	3	15	13	13
10	Merthyr Town	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
11	Chorley	8	3	2	3	14	14	11
12	Harborough Town	8	3	2	3	10	11	11
13	Scarborough Athletic	8	3	1	4	14	11	10
14	Morecambe	8	3	1	4	10	8	10
15	Kings Lynn Town	8	3	1	4	13	15	10
16	Hednesford	8	2	3	3	12	14	9
17	Worksop	8	3	0	5	7	12	9
18	AFC Telford	8	2	2	4	8	10	8
19	Southport	8	2	2	4	11	16	8
20	Brackley	7	2	2	3	7	13	8
21	Marine	8	2	0	6	8	10	6
22	Radcliffe FC	8	2	0	6	8	13	6
23	Darlington 1883	8	2	0	6	10	18	6
24	Spennymoor Town	8	1	2	5	8	18	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marine	Darlington 1883
Worksop	0-1 L	1-2 L
Harborough Town	1-2 L	2-4 L
Radcliffe FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Kings Lynn Town	4-1 W	0-2 L
Chorley	0-2 L	2-5 L
Macclesfield	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Marine (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marine

LDLLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	South Shields England National League North	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
05/09	Worksop England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
31/08	Harborough Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
22/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	4-1	2	3	W
18/08	Chorley England National League North	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
15/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
08/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
25/04	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	8	1	D
21/04	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	1-2	8	6	L

Darlington 1883

DLLWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Chorley England National League North	0-3	2-5	7	6	L
05/09	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
31/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Harborough Town England National League North	2-1	2-4	2	0	L
18/08	Chester England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
15/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
08/08	Worksop England National League North	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
25/04	Oxford City England National League North	0-2	1-3	11	10	L
18/04	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marine vs Darlington 1883?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marine win (41%). Probabilities: Marine 41%, draw 26%, Darlington 1883 33%.

How many goals are expected in Marine vs Darlington 1883?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Marine 1.66 · Darlington 1883 1.49), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Marine vs Darlington 1883?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.