Football · England National League North · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Scarborough Athletic vs Southport

Team pages: Scarborough Athletic · Southport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Scarborough Athletic1.62

Southport1.16

1X2

47% 26% 26%

Scarborough Athletic Draw Southport

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Scarborough Athletic 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLLWWL

Southport 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLDDW

Head-to-head

Scarborough Athletic 2–1–3 Southport (6 last)

Southport1-1Scarborough Athletic
Scarborough Athletic2-0Southport
Southport0-1Scarborough Athletic
Scarborough Athletic1-2Southport
Scarborough Athletic0-1Southport
Southport3-1Scarborough Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Scarborough Athletic 1505 · Southport 1504

	Scarborough Athletic	Draw	Southport
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	48%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Southport: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Scarborough Athletic	Southport
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.5	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:43 +11’	1.90	3.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Scarborough Athletic 2–1–3 Southport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/26 England National League North	Southport	1-1 HT 0-0	Scarborough Athletic
30/08/25 England National League North	Scarborough Athletic	2-0 HT 1-0	Southport
22/03/25 England National League North	Southport	0-1 HT 0-1	Scarborough Athletic
19/10/24 England National League North	Scarborough Athletic	1-2 HT 0-1	Southport
20/02/24 England National League North	Scarborough Athletic	0-1 HT 0-0	Southport
05/09/23 England National League North	Southport	3-1 HT 2-0	Scarborough Athletic

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chester	4	4	0	0	6	1	12
2	Oxford City	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
3	Hebburn Town	4	3	1	0	7	3	10
4	Macclesfield	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	South Shields	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
6	Hereford FC	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
7	Harborough Town	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
8	Scarborough Athletic	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
9	Chorley	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
10	Worksop	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
11	Southport	4	1	2	1	8	7	5
12	Merthyr Town	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
13	Spalding United	4	1	1	2	2	2	4
14	Buxton	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
15	Brackley	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
16	Kings Lynn Town	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
17	Spennymoor Town	4	1	1	2	4	9	4
18	Marine	4	1	0	3	4	5	3
19	Darlington 1883	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
20	Bedford Town	4	1	0	3	5	9	3
21	Radcliffe FC	4	1	0	3	3	8	3
22	AFC Telford	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
23	Hednesford	4	0	2	2	6	9	2
24	Morecambe	4	0	1	3	2	5	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Scarborough Athletic	Southport
Hednesford	4-3 W	2-2 D
Buxton	2-4 L	1-1 D
Bedford Town	1-1 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Southport (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Scarborough Athletic

WWLWDLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Chorley England National League North	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
18/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	3-0	3-0	6	4	W
15/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	4-3	3	6	W
08/08	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
28/04	Buxton England National League North	0-0	2-4	7	4	L
25/04	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
18/04	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
11/04	Buxton England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
06/04	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
03/04	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	2-1	5	6	W

Southport

WWLLLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
15/08	Buxton England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
08/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
25/04	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
21/04	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
18/04	AFC Fylde England National League North	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
11/04	Leamington England National League North	1-2	1-2	0	5	L
06/04	Curzon Ashton England National League North	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
03/04	Marine England National League North	1-0	2-1	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Scarborough Athletic vs Southport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Scarborough Athletic win (47%). Probabilities: Scarborough Athletic 47%, draw 26%, Southport 26%.

How many goals are expected in Scarborough Athletic vs Southport?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Scarborough Athletic 1.62 · Southport 1.16), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Scarborough Athletic vs Southport?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.