Football · England National League North · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Bedford Town vs Radcliffe FC

Team pages: Bedford Town · Radcliffe FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Bedford Town1.42

Radcliffe FC1.02

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Bedford Town Draw Radcliffe FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Bedford Town 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDLLWLWW

Radcliffe FC 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Bedford Town 1–1–0 Radcliffe FC (2 last)

Bedford Town1-0Radcliffe FC
Radcliffe FC0-0Bedford Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bedford Town 1507 · Radcliffe FC 1397

	Bedford Town	Draw	Radcliffe FC
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bedford Town (rating 1507 vs 1397).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bedford Town	Radcliffe FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	0.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.5	2.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:36 +20’	1.91	3.60	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bedford Town 1–1–0 Radcliffe FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England National League North	Bedford Town	1-0 HT 0-0	Radcliffe FC
18/10/25 England National League North	Radcliffe FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Bedford Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	6	5	1	0	10	3	16
2	Hereford FC	6	4	1	1	10	3	13
3	Oxford City	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Chester	6	4	1	1	7	3	13
5	Hebburn Town	6	4	1	1	11	8	13
6	Harborough Town	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
7	South Shields	5	3	2	0	6	3	11
8	Buxton	6	3	1	2	10	9	10
9	Scarborough Athletic	6	3	0	3	14	10	9
10	Bedford Town	6	3	0	3	9	10	9
11	Spalding United	6	2	2	2	6	4	8
12	Chorley	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
13	Morecambe	6	2	1	3	5	6	7
14	Kings Lynn Town	6	2	1	3	9	12	7
15	Merthyr Town	6	1	3	2	8	8	6
16	Marine	6	2	0	4	7	7	6
17	Hednesford	6	1	3	2	9	11	6
18	Darlington 1883	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
19	Worksop	6	2	0	4	5	10	6
20	Brackley	5	1	2	2	6	8	5
21	Southport	6	1	2	3	9	13	5
22	Spennymoor Town	6	1	2	3	6	13	5
23	Radcliffe FC	6	1	0	5	3	11	3
24	AFC Telford	6	0	2	4	6	10	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bedford Town	Radcliffe FC
Darlington 1883	2-3 L	0-1 L
South Shields	1-1 D	2-5 L
Hereford FC	2-2 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Bedford Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bedford Town

WDDDLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	Southport England National League North	1-2	1-4	6	4	L
18/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	2-1	5	8	W
15/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-2	2-3	10	3	L
08/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
18/04	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
11/04	Hereford FC England National League North	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
06/04	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Radcliffe FC

LLLWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-1	0-1	11	5	L
29/08	Marine England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
22/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	2-1	3	8	W
18/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
15/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
08/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
25/04	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
18/04	Hereford FC England National League North	1-3	1-3	10	11	L
14/04	Kidderminster England National League North	0-2	1-3	9	6	L
11/04	South Shields England National League North	1-2	2-5	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bedford Town vs Radcliffe FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bedford Town win (46%). Probabilities: Bedford Town 46%, draw 27%, Radcliffe FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Bedford Town vs Radcliffe FC?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Bedford Town 1.42 · Radcliffe FC 1.02), with a 61% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bedford Town vs Radcliffe FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.