Football · England National League North · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Scarborough Athletic vs AFC Telford

Team pages: Scarborough Athletic · AFC Telford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Scarborough Athletic1.81

AFC Telford1.29

1X2

49% 25% 26%

Scarborough Athletic Draw AFC Telford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Scarborough Athletic 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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AFC Telford 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Scarborough Athletic 1–2–1 AFC Telford (4 last)

Scarborough Athletic1-1AFC Telford
AFC Telford4-1Scarborough Athletic
AFC Telford1-1Scarborough Athletic
Scarborough Athletic1-0AFC Telford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Scarborough Athletic 1472 · AFC Telford 1425

	Scarborough Athletic	Draw	AFC Telford
Our model	49%	25%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Scarborough Athletic (rating 1472 vs 1425).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Scarborough Athletic	AFC Telford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:46 +8’	1.85	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Scarborough Athletic 1–2–1 AFC Telford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England National League North	Scarborough Athletic	1-1 HT 0-1	AFC Telford
18/10/25 England National League North	AFC Telford	4-1 HT 0-0	Scarborough Athletic
22/04/23 England National League North	AFC Telford	1-1 HT 0-0	Scarborough Athletic
22/10/22 England National League North	Scarborough Athletic	1-0 HT 1-0	AFC Telford

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	6	5	1	0	10	3	16
2	Hereford FC	6	4	1	1	10	3	13
3	Oxford City	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Chester	6	4	1	1	7	3	13
5	Hebburn Town	6	4	1	1	11	8	13
6	Harborough Town	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
7	South Shields	5	3	2	0	6	3	11
8	Buxton	6	3	1	2	10	9	10
9	Scarborough Athletic	6	3	0	3	14	10	9
10	Bedford Town	6	3	0	3	9	10	9
11	Spalding United	6	2	2	2	6	4	8
12	Chorley	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
13	Morecambe	6	2	1	3	5	6	7
14	Kings Lynn Town	6	2	1	3	9	12	7
15	Merthyr Town	6	1	3	2	8	8	6
16	Marine	6	2	0	4	7	7	6
17	Hednesford	6	1	3	2	9	11	6
18	Darlington 1883	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
19	Worksop	6	2	0	4	5	10	6
20	Brackley	5	1	2	2	6	8	5
21	Southport	6	1	2	3	9	13	5
22	Spennymoor Town	6	1	2	3	6	13	5
23	Radcliffe FC	6	1	0	5	3	11	3
24	AFC Telford	6	0	2	4	6	10	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Scarborough Athletic	AFC Telford
Southport	5-1 W	0-2 L
Hednesford	4-3 W	1-1 D
Bedford Town	1-1 D	0-1 L
Merthyr Town	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Scarborough Athletic (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Scarborough Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
29/08	Southport England National League North	3-0	5-1	5	1	W
22/08	Chorley England National League North	0-0	1-2	9	3	L
18/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	3-0	3-0	6	4	W
15/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	4-3	3	6	W
08/08	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
28/04	Buxton England National League North	0-0	2-4	7	4	L
25/04	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
18/04	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
11/04	Buxton England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	6	L

AFC Telford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
18/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Worksop England National League North	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
08/08	Brackley England National League North	0-0	1-2	8	3	L
25/04	Southport England National League North	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
18/04	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
11/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
06/04	Kidderminster England National League North	1-2	1-2	4	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Scarborough Athletic vs AFC Telford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Scarborough Athletic win (49%). Probabilities: Scarborough Athletic 49%, draw 25%, AFC Telford 26%.

How many goals are expected in Scarborough Athletic vs AFC Telford?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Scarborough Athletic 1.81 · AFC Telford 1.29), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Scarborough Athletic vs AFC Telford?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.