Football · England National League North · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Marine vs Worksop

Team pages: Marine · Worksop

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Marine1.4

Worksop1.36

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Marine Draw Worksop

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Marine 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLLWWL

Worksop 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Marine 4–1 Worksop (5 last)

Marine4-2Worksop
Worksop1-2Marine
Marine2-1Worksop
Worksop0-1Marine
Marine0-1Worksop

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marine 1512 · Worksop 1479

	Marine	Draw	Worksop
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Marine: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marine	Worksop
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:43 +12’	2.40	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Marine 4–0–1 Worksop

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England National League North	Marine	4-2 HT 1-1	Worksop
18/10/25 England National League North	Worksop	1-2 HT 0-2	Marine
27/01/24 England Northern Premier League	Marine	2-1	Worksop
25/11/23 England Northern Premier League	Worksop	0-1	Marine
16/04/14 England Northern League Challenge Cup	Marine	0-1	Worksop

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	6	5	1	0	10	3	16
2	Hereford FC	6	4	1	1	10	3	13
3	Oxford City	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Chester	6	4	1	1	7	3	13
5	Hebburn Town	6	4	1	1	11	8	13
6	Harborough Town	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
7	South Shields	5	3	2	0	6	3	11
8	Buxton	6	3	1	2	10	9	10
9	Scarborough Athletic	6	3	0	3	14	10	9
10	Bedford Town	6	3	0	3	9	10	9
11	Spalding United	6	2	2	2	6	4	8
12	Chorley	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
13	Morecambe	6	2	1	3	5	6	7
14	Kings Lynn Town	6	2	1	3	9	12	7
15	Merthyr Town	6	1	3	2	8	8	6
16	Marine	6	2	0	4	7	7	6
17	Hednesford	6	1	3	2	9	11	6
18	Darlington 1883	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
19	Worksop	6	2	0	4	5	10	6
20	Brackley	5	1	2	2	6	8	5
21	Southport	6	1	2	3	9	13	5
22	Spennymoor Town	6	1	2	3	6	13	5
23	Radcliffe FC	6	1	0	5	3	11	3
24	AFC Telford	6	0	2	4	6	10	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marine	Worksop
Chorley	0-2 L	1-2 L
Hereford FC	0-1 L	0-3 L
Spennymoor Town	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Worksop (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marine

LLLDLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Harborough Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
22/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	4-1	2	3	W
18/08	Chorley England National League North	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
15/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
08/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
25/04	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	8	1	D
21/04	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	1-2	8	6	L
18/04	Alfreton Town England National League North	1-0	2-3	2	3	L
14/04	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	1-3	8	7	L

Worksop

LWWLWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
29/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-2	1-3	5	5	L
22/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
18/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
15/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
25/04	Chorley England National League North	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
18/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	6-0	8-0	10	2	W
11/04	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
06/04	Buxton England National League North	0-1	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marine vs Worksop?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marine win (37%). Probabilities: Marine 37%, draw 27%, Worksop 36%.

How many goals are expected in Marine vs Worksop?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Marine 1.4 · Worksop 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Marine vs Worksop?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.