Football · England National League North · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Oxford City vs Chorley

Team pages: Oxford City · Chorley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Oxford City1.49

Chorley1.23

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Oxford City Draw Chorley

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Oxford City 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWDWLW

Chorley 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLWWDD

Head-to-head

Oxford City 1–5–0 Chorley (6 last)

Oxford City2-0Chorley
Chorley3-3Oxford City
Chorley0-0Oxford City
Oxford City2-2Chorley
Chorley1-1Oxford City
Oxford City0-0Chorley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oxford City 1539 · Chorley 1452

	Oxford City	Draw	Chorley
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oxford City (rating 1539 vs 1452).
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oxford City	Chorley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.1	1.1 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:39 +15’	2.10	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oxford City 1–5–0 Chorley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England National League North	Oxford City	2-0 HT 0-0	Chorley
11/10/25 England National League North	Chorley	3-3 HT 0-2	Oxford City
21/01/25 England National League North	Chorley	0-0 HT 0-0	Oxford City
31/08/24 England National League North	Oxford City	2-2 HT 2-0	Chorley
24/02/15 England National League North	Chorley	1-1 HT 0-0	Oxford City
16/08/14 England National League North	Oxford City	0-0 HT 0-0	Chorley

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	6	5	1	0	10	3	16
2	Hereford FC	6	4	1	1	10	3	13
3	Oxford City	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Chester	6	4	1	1	7	3	13
5	Hebburn Town	6	4	1	1	11	8	13
6	Harborough Town	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
7	South Shields	5	3	2	0	6	3	11
8	Buxton	6	3	1	2	10	9	10
9	Scarborough Athletic	6	3	0	3	14	10	9
10	Bedford Town	6	3	0	3	9	10	9
11	Spalding United	6	2	2	2	6	4	8
12	Chorley	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
13	Morecambe	6	2	1	3	5	6	7
14	Kings Lynn Town	6	2	1	3	9	12	7
15	Merthyr Town	6	1	3	2	8	8	6
16	Marine	6	2	0	4	7	7	6
17	Hednesford	6	1	3	2	9	11	6
18	Darlington 1883	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
19	Worksop	6	2	0	4	5	10	6
20	Brackley	5	1	2	2	6	8	5
21	Southport	6	1	2	3	9	13	5
22	Spennymoor Town	6	1	2	3	6	13	5
23	Radcliffe FC	6	1	0	5	3	11	3
24	AFC Telford	6	0	2	4	6	10	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oxford City	Chorley
Worksop	1-0 W	2-1 W
Chester	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oxford City

DWLWWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Worksop England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
28/08	Buxton England National League North	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
22/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	3-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
08/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
25/04	Darlington 1883 England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	10	W
18/04	Chester England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
14/04	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	2-1	5	9	W
11/04	Alfreton Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	7	6	D

Chorley

LLDWLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Brackley England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
29/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
18/08	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
15/08	South Shields England National League North	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
08/08	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
25/04	Worksop England National League North	2-0	2-1	1	2	W
18/04	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
11/04	Curzon Ashton England National League North	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
06/04	Marine England National League North	0-2	1-2	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oxford City vs Chorley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oxford City win (42%). Probabilities: Oxford City 42%, draw 27%, Chorley 31%.

How many goals are expected in Oxford City vs Chorley?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Oxford City 1.49 · Chorley 1.23), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Oxford City vs Chorley?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.