Football · England National League North · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Hereford FC vs Spennymoor Town

Team pages: Hereford FC · Spennymoor Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Hereford FC1.72

Spennymoor Town0.99

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Hereford FC Draw Spennymoor Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hereford FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWWWDW

Spennymoor Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWLLLD

Head-to-head

Hereford FC 1–1–4 Spennymoor Town (6 last)

Hereford FC1-2Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town2-0Hereford FC
Hereford FC0-2Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town0-0Hereford FC
Hereford FC2-1Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town2-0Hereford FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hereford FC 1541 · Spennymoor Town 1441

	Hereford FC	Draw	Spennymoor Town
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hereford FC (rating 1541 vs 1441).
H2H favours Spennymoor Town: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hereford FC	Spennymoor Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.6	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.6	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:45 +17’	1.65	3.75	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hereford FC 1–1–4 Spennymoor Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/03/26 England National League North	Hereford FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Spennymoor Town
09/08/25 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	2-0 HT 2-0	Hereford FC
08/02/25 England National League North	Hereford FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Spennymoor Town
07/09/24 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	0-0 HT 0-0	Hereford FC
23/12/23 England National League North	Hereford FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Spennymoor Town
09/09/23 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	2-0 HT 1-0	Hereford FC

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Macclesfield	6	5	1	0	10	3	16
2	Hereford FC	6	4	1	1	10	3	13
3	Oxford City	6	4	1	1	10	5	13
4	Chester	6	4	1	1	7	3	13
5	Hebburn Town	6	4	1	1	11	8	13
6	Harborough Town	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
7	South Shields	5	3	2	0	6	3	11
8	Buxton	6	3	1	2	10	9	10
9	Scarborough Athletic	6	3	0	3	14	10	9
10	Bedford Town	6	3	0	3	9	10	9
11	Spalding United	6	2	2	2	6	4	8
12	Chorley	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
13	Morecambe	6	2	1	3	5	6	7
14	Kings Lynn Town	6	2	1	3	9	12	7
15	Merthyr Town	6	1	3	2	8	8	6
16	Marine	6	2	0	4	7	7	6
17	Hednesford	6	1	3	2	9	11	6
18	Darlington 1883	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
19	Worksop	6	2	0	4	5	10	6
20	Brackley	5	1	2	2	6	8	5
21	Southport	6	1	2	3	9	13	5
22	Spennymoor Town	6	1	2	3	6	13	5
23	Radcliffe FC	6	1	0	5	3	11	3
24	AFC Telford	6	0	2	4	6	10	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hereford FC	Spennymoor Town
Worksop	3-0 W	0-1 L
Marine	1-0 W	1-1 D
Oxford City	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hereford FC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hereford FC

LWWDLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Southport England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Chester England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
22/08	Worksop England National League North	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
18/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
15/08	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
08/08	Buxton England National League North	0-1	1-2	0	6	L
25/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	1-2	2-2	8	4	D
21/04	Marine England National League North	0-0	2-1	9	6	W
18/04	Radcliffe FC England National League North	3-1	3-1	3	11	W
14/04	Oxford City England National League North	1-0	1-2	8	9	L

Spennymoor Town

LLWDDWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
29/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
22/08	Oxford City England National League North	1-3	1-4	1	4	L
18/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	0-3	5	4	L
15/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
25/04	Marine England National League North	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
18/04	Macclesfield England National League North	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
11/04	Worksop England National League North	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
06/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-1	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hereford FC vs Spennymoor Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hereford FC win (54%). Probabilities: Hereford FC 54%, draw 25%, Spennymoor Town 21%.

How many goals are expected in Hereford FC vs Spennymoor Town?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Hereford FC 1.72 · Spennymoor Town 0.99), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hereford FC vs Spennymoor Town?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.