Football · England National League North · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: AFC Telford vs Hednesford
Team pages: AFC Telford · Hednesford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
AFC Telford1.55
Hednesford1.2
1X2
AFC Telford
Draw
Hednesford
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
AFC Telford
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Hednesford
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AFC Telford
0–3
Hednesford
(3 last)
- AFC Telford1-2Hednesford
- AFC Telford1-3Hednesford
- Hednesford2-0AFC Telford
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AFC Telford 1465 · Hednesford 1497
| AFC Telford | Draw | Hednesford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Hednesford: 3-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AFC Telford | Hednesford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 56/33/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.8 | 2.3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Telford 0–0–3 Hednesford
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/25 UK Friendlies | AFC Telford | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Hednesford |
| 26/01/16 England National League North | AFC Telford | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Hednesford |
| 26/12/15 England National League North | Hednesford | 2-0 HT 2-0 | AFC Telford |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | South Shields | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Hebburn Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Macclesfield | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Oxford City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Hereford FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Worksop | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Harborough Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Merthyr Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Spalding United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Buxton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Kings Lynn Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Brackley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Spennymoor Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Chorley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Bedford Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Darlington 1883 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 19 | Southport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 20 | AFC Telford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 21 | Morecambe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 22 | Hednesford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 23 | Marine | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 | Radcliffe FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AFC Telford | Hednesford |
|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Southport | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AFC Telford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Merthyr Town England National League North |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Worksop England National League North |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Brackley England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Tamworth UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Walsall UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Crewe UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Shifnal Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/07 | Nuneaton Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Southport England National League North |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Darlington 1883 England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
Hednesford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Southport England National League North |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
1-1 | 3-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Merthyr Town England National League North |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Boston Utd Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Solihull Moors Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 04/05 | Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 28/04 | Stockton Town England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Morpeth Town England Northern Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AFC Telford vs Hednesford?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Telford win (45%). Probabilities: AFC Telford 45%, draw 27%, Hednesford 29%.
How many goals are expected in AFC Telford vs Hednesford?
The model expects 2.76 goals (AFC Telford 1.55 · Hednesford 1.2), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in AFC Telford vs Hednesford?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.