Football · England National League North · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic
Team pages: Chorley · Scarborough Athletic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
Chorley1.23
Scarborough Athletic1.16
1X2
Chorley
Draw
Scarborough Athletic
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chorley
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Scarborough Athletic
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chorley
3–2–1
Scarborough Athletic
(6 last)
- Scarborough Athletic0-0Chorley
- Chorley2-2Scarborough Athletic
- Scarborough Athletic2-3Chorley
- Chorley1-2Scarborough Athletic
- Chorley3-0Scarborough Athletic
- Chorley1-0Scarborough Athletic
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chorley 1472 · Scarborough Athletic 1495
| Chorley | Draw | Scarborough Athletic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Chorley: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chorley | Scarborough Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.3 | 2.5 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chorley 3–2–1 Scarborough Athletic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 England National League North | Scarborough Athletic | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chorley |
| 19/08/25 England National League North | Chorley | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Scarborough Athletic |
| 28/01/25 England National League North | Scarborough Athletic | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Chorley |
| 20/08/24 England National League North | Chorley | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Scarborough Athletic |
| 16/03/24 England National League North | Chorley | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Scarborough Athletic |
| 18/11/23 England FA Trophy | Chorley | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Scarborough Athletic |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | South Shields | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Hebburn Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Macclesfield | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Oxford City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Hereford FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Worksop | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Harborough Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Merthyr Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Spalding United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Buxton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Kings Lynn Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Brackley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Spennymoor Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Chorley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Bedford Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Darlington 1883 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 19 | Southport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 20 | AFC Telford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 21 | Morecambe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 22 | Hednesford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 23 | Marine | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 | Radcliffe FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chorley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Marine England National League North |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 15/08 | South Shields England National League North |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Chester England National League North |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Accrington Stanley UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 21/07 | Altrincham UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 11/07 | Bury Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Bamber Bridge Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Longridge Town FC Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Worksop England National League North |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Kings Lynn Town England National League North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
Scarborough Athletic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Spennymoor Town England National League North |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Hednesford England National League North |
1-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 08/08 | South Shields England National League North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Harrogate Town UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 28/07 | Hull U21 UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Barnsley UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 28/04 | Buxton England National League North |
0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Bedford Town England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Merthyr Town England National League North |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Buxton England National League North |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chorley win (37%). Probabilities: Chorley 37%, draw 29%, Scarborough Athletic 34%.
How many goals are expected in Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic?
The model expects 2.4 goals (Chorley 1.23 · Scarborough Athletic 1.16), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.