Football · England National League North · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Southport vs Bedford Town
Team pages: Southport · Bedford Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Southport1.55
Bedford Town1.07
1X2
Southport
Draw
Bedford Town
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Southport
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Bedford Town
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Southport
2–0
Bedford Town
(2 last)
- Bedford Town2-3Southport
- Southport3-1Bedford Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Southport 1503 · Bedford Town 1482
| Southport | Draw | Bedford Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Southport: 2-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Southport | Bedford Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.4 | 2.4 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.6 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Southport 2–0–0 Bedford Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 England National League North | Bedford Town | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Southport |
| 16/08/25 England National League North | Southport | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Bedford Town |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | South Shields | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Hebburn Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Macclesfield | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Oxford City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Hereford FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Worksop | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Harborough Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Merthyr Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Spalding United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Buxton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Kings Lynn Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Brackley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Spennymoor Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Chorley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Bedford Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Darlington 1883 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 19 | Southport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 20 | AFC Telford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| 21 | Morecambe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 22 | Hednesford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 23 | Marine | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 | Radcliffe FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southport
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Hednesford England National League North |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Buxton England National League North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Hebburn Town England National League North |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 31/07 | Wigan UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Warrington Town UK Friendlies |
3-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 24/07 | FC United of Manchester UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Fleetwood Town Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Atherton Collieries Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | AFC Telford England National League North |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 21/04 | Macclesfield England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
Bedford Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Buxton England National League North |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 15/08 | Darlington 1883 England National League North |
1-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Oxford City England National League North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Kettering Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/07 | Real Bedford Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Walton & Hersham UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Berkhamsted UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 07/07 | Aldershot UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 25/04 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | South Shields England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southport vs Bedford Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Southport win (48%). Probabilities: Southport 48%, draw 26%, Bedford Town 26%.
How many goals are expected in Southport vs Bedford Town?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Southport 1.55 · Bedford Town 1.07), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Southport vs Bedford Town?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.