Football · England National League North · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Bedford Town vs Spennymoor Town

Team pages: Bedford Town · Spennymoor Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Bedford Town1.28

Spennymoor Town1.22

1X2

38% 28% 35%

Bedford Town Draw Spennymoor Town

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Bedford Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDDDLLWL

Spennymoor Town 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWDDWLL

Head-to-head

Bedford Town 0–1–1 Spennymoor Town (2 last)

Spennymoor Town0-0Bedford Town
Bedford Town0-3Spennymoor Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bedford Town 1475 · Spennymoor Town 1487

	Bedford Town	Draw	Spennymoor Town
Our model	37%	30%	34%
Market	38%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bedford Town	Spennymoor Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:39 +6’	2.35	3.40	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bedford Town 0–1–1 Spennymoor Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	0-0 HT 0-0	Bedford Town
20/09/25 England National League North	Bedford Town	0-3 HT 0-2	Spennymoor Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chester	4	4	0	0	6	1	12
2	Oxford City	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
3	Hebburn Town	4	3	1	0	7	3	10
4	Macclesfield	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	South Shields	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
6	Hereford FC	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
7	Harborough Town	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
8	Scarborough Athletic	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
9	Chorley	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
10	Worksop	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
11	Southport	4	1	2	1	8	7	5
12	Merthyr Town	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
13	Spalding United	4	1	1	2	2	2	4
14	Buxton	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
15	Brackley	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
16	Kings Lynn Town	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
17	Spennymoor Town	4	1	1	2	4	9	4
18	Marine	4	1	0	3	4	5	3
19	Darlington 1883	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
20	Bedford Town	4	1	0	3	5	9	3
21	Radcliffe FC	4	1	0	3	3	8	3
22	AFC Telford	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
23	Hednesford	4	0	2	2	6	9	2
24	Morecambe	4	0	1	3	2	5	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bedford Town	Spennymoor Town
Oxford City	0-1 L	1-4 L
Scarborough Athletic	1-1 D	0-3 L
South Shields	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bedford Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bedford Town

DWWDDDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Southport England National League North	1-2	1-4	6	4	L
18/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	2-1	5	8	W
15/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-2	2-3	10	3	L
08/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
18/04	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
11/04	Hereford FC England National League North	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
06/04	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
03/04	Leamington England National League North	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
28/03	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	2-2	1	3	D

Spennymoor Town

WDLLWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Oxford City England National League North	1-3	1-4	1	4	L
18/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	0-3	5	4	L
15/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
25/04	Marine England National League North	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
18/04	Macclesfield England National League North	2-0	2-0	8	2	W
11/04	Worksop England National League North	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
06/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
03/04	South Shields England National League North	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
31/03	Kidderminster England National League North	0-1	3-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bedford Town vs Spennymoor Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bedford Town win (38%). Probabilities: Bedford Town 38%, draw 28%, Spennymoor Town 35%.

How many goals are expected in Bedford Town vs Spennymoor Town?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Bedford Town 1.28 · Spennymoor Town 1.22), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bedford Town vs Spennymoor Town?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.