Football · England National League North · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Hereford FC vs Chester

Team pages: Hereford FC · Chester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Hereford FC1.12

Chester1.32

1X2

31% 28% 41%

Hereford FC Draw Chester

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hereford FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDLWWW

Chester 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWWWW

Head-to-head

Hereford FC 2–3–1 Chester (6 last)

Hereford FC5-2Chester
Chester1-1Hereford FC
Hereford FC2-2Chester
Chester3-0Hereford FC
Hereford FC1-1Chester
Chester1-2Hereford FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hereford FC 1564 · Chester 1585

	Hereford FC	Draw	Chester
Our model	30%	30%	40%
Market	32%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hereford FC: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hereford FC	Chester
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	1.4 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 5.8	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.5	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:22 +14’	2.80	3.40	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hereford FC 2–3–1 Chester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/26 England National League North	Hereford FC	5-2 HT 3-2	Chester
25/11/25 England National League North	Chester	1-1 HT 0-0	Hereford FC
05/04/25 England National League North	Hereford FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Chester
02/11/24 England National League North	Chester	3-0 HT 1-0	Hereford FC
20/02/24 England National League North	Hereford FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Chester
05/09/23 England National League North	Chester	1-2 HT 1-0	Hereford FC

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chester	4	4	0	0	6	1	12
2	Oxford City	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
3	Hebburn Town	4	3	1	0	7	3	10
4	Macclesfield	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	South Shields	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
6	Hereford FC	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
7	Harborough Town	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
8	Scarborough Athletic	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
9	Chorley	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
10	Worksop	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
11	Southport	4	1	2	1	8	7	5
12	Merthyr Town	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
13	Spalding United	4	1	1	2	2	2	4
14	Buxton	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
15	Brackley	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
16	Kings Lynn Town	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
17	Spennymoor Town	4	1	1	2	4	9	4
18	Marine	4	1	0	3	4	5	3
19	Darlington 1883	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
20	Bedford Town	4	1	0	3	5	9	3
21	Radcliffe FC	4	1	0	3	3	8	3
22	AFC Telford	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
23	Hednesford	4	0	2	2	6	9	2
24	Morecambe	4	0	1	3	2	5	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hereford FC

WDLWWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Worksop England National League North	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
18/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
15/08	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
08/08	Buxton England National League North	0-1	1-2	0	6	L
25/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	1-2	2-2	8	4	D
21/04	Marine England National League North	0-0	2-1	9	6	W
18/04	Radcliffe FC England National League North	3-1	3-1	3	11	W
14/04	Oxford City England National League North	1-0	1-2	8	9	L
11/04	Bedford Town England National League North	0-2	2-2	6	4	D
08/04	Marine England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	5	W

Chester

WWWWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
15/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	2-0	2-0	11	3	W
08/08	Chorley England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
29/04	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	0	3	L
25/04	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
18/04	Oxford City England National League North	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
11/04	AFC Fylde England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/04	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
03/04	AFC Telford England National League North	0-0	2-1	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hereford FC vs Chester?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chester win (41%). Probabilities: Hereford FC 31%, draw 28%, Chester 41%.

How many goals are expected in Hereford FC vs Chester?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Hereford FC 1.12 · Chester 1.32), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hereford FC vs Chester?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.