Football · England National League North · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Merthyr Town vs Chorley

Team pages: Merthyr Town · Chorley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Merthyr Town1.41

Chorley1.39

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Merthyr Town Draw Chorley

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Merthyr Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLWLDD

Chorley 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWLLWW

Head-to-head

Merthyr Town 1–1 Chorley (2 last)

Merthyr Town2-3Chorley
Chorley0-2Merthyr Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Merthyr Town 1481 · Chorley 1475

	Merthyr Town	Draw	Chorley
Our model	37%	28%	36%
Market	37%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Merthyr Town	Chorley
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	1.4 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.40

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +14’	2.38	3.40	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Merthyr Town 1–0–1 Chorley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England National League North	Merthyr Town	2-3 HT 2-2	Chorley
25/10/25 England National League North	Chorley	0-2 HT 0-1	Merthyr Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chester	4	4	0	0	6	1	12
2	Oxford City	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
3	Hebburn Town	4	3	1	0	7	3	10
4	Macclesfield	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	South Shields	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
6	Hereford FC	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
7	Harborough Town	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
8	Scarborough Athletic	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
9	Chorley	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
10	Worksop	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
11	Southport	4	1	2	1	8	7	5
12	Merthyr Town	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
13	Spalding United	4	1	1	2	2	2	4
14	Buxton	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
15	Brackley	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
16	Kings Lynn Town	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
17	Spennymoor Town	4	1	1	2	4	9	4
18	Marine	4	1	0	3	4	5	3
19	Darlington 1883	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
20	Bedford Town	4	1	0	3	5	9	3
21	Radcliffe FC	4	1	0	3	3	8	3
22	AFC Telford	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
23	Hednesford	4	0	2	2	6	9	2
24	Morecambe	4	0	1	3	2	5	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Merthyr Town	Chorley
South Shields	1-1 D	1-2 L
AFC Fylde	2-4 L	2-0 W
Scarborough Athletic	1-2 L	2-1 W
Marine	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chorley (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Merthyr Town

DLLWLLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
08/08	Hednesford England National League North	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
25/04	AFC Fylde England National League North	1-0	2-4	3	3	L
18/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
14/04	Marine England National League North	1-0	3-1	5	7	W
11/04	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	1-2	14	8	L
06/04	Hereford FC England National League North	0-3	0-3	3	6	L
03/04	Oxford City England National League North	1-0	1-1	5	5	D

Chorley

LWLLDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
18/08	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
15/08	South Shields England National League North	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
08/08	Chester England National League North	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
25/04	Worksop England National League North	2-0	2-1	1	2	W
18/04	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
11/04	Curzon Ashton England National League North	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
06/04	Marine England National League North	0-2	1-2	3	7	L
03/04	AFC Fylde England National League North	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
31/03	Alfreton Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Merthyr Town vs Chorley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Merthyr Town win (37%). Probabilities: Merthyr Town 37%, draw 27%, Chorley 36%.

How many goals are expected in Merthyr Town vs Chorley?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Merthyr Town 1.41 · Chorley 1.39), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Merthyr Town vs Chorley?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.