Football · England National League North · 28/08, 20:45

Prediction: Oxford City vs Buxton

Team pages: Oxford City · Buxton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Oxford City1.37

Buxton1.37

1X2

36% 27% 36%

Oxford City Draw Buxton

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Oxford City 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWWWDW

Buxton 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWDLL

Head-to-head

Oxford City 1–3 Buxton (4 last)

Oxford City2-1Buxton
Buxton2-1Oxford City
Oxford City0-7Buxton
Buxton2-1Oxford City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oxford City 1557 · Buxton 1527

	Oxford City	Draw	Buxton
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Buxton: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oxford City	Buxton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 4.2	2.5 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.30

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +5’	2.45	3.30	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oxford City 1–0–3 Buxton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 England National League North	Oxford City	2-1 HT 1-0	Buxton
06/09/25 England National League North	Buxton	2-1 HT 1-0	Oxford City
08/03/25 England National League North	Oxford City	0-7 HT 0-3	Buxton
23/11/24 England National League North	Buxton	2-1 HT 1-1	Oxford City

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chester	4	4	0	0	6	1	12
2	Oxford City	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
3	Hebburn Town	4	3	1	0	7	3	10
4	Macclesfield	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
4	South Shields	4	3	1	0	5	2	10
6	Hereford FC	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
7	Harborough Town	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
8	Scarborough Athletic	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
9	Chorley	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
10	Worksop	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
11	Southport	4	1	2	1	8	7	5
12	Merthyr Town	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
13	Spalding United	4	1	1	2	2	2	4
14	Buxton	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
15	Brackley	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
16	Kings Lynn Town	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
17	Spennymoor Town	4	1	1	2	4	9	4
18	Marine	4	1	0	3	4	5	3
19	Darlington 1883	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
20	Bedford Town	4	1	0	3	5	9	3
21	Radcliffe FC	4	1	0	3	3	8	3
22	AFC Telford	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
23	Hednesford	4	0	2	2	6	9	2
24	Morecambe	4	0	1	3	2	5	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oxford City	Buxton
Bedford Town	1-0 W	1-2 L
Hereford FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Alfreton Town	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Oxford City (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oxford City

DWDWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	3-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
08/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
25/04	Darlington 1883 England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	10	W
18/04	Chester England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
14/04	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	2-1	5	9	W
11/04	Alfreton Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
06/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
03/04	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	3	5	D

Buxton

WDWWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
18/08	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
15/08	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
08/08	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
02/05	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
28/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	4-2	6	4	W
25/04	Leamington England National League North	2-1	4-1	7	1	W
18/04	Curzon Ashton England National League North	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
14/04	Alfreton Town England National League North	1-2	2-2	5	6	D
11/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	2-0	8	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oxford City vs Buxton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oxford City win (36%). Probabilities: Oxford City 36%, draw 27%, Buxton 36%.

How many goals are expected in Oxford City vs Buxton?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Oxford City 1.37 · Buxton 1.37), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Oxford City vs Buxton?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.