Football · England National League South · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Chelmsford vs Farnborough

Team pages: Chelmsford · Farnborough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Chelmsford2.26

Farnborough1.12

1X2

62% 21% 17%

Chelmsford Draw Farnborough

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Chelmsford 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDDWDWWL

Farnborough 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWLWLL

Head-to-head

Chelmsford 2–1–3 Farnborough (6 last)

Farnborough4-2Chelmsford
Chelmsford2-5Farnborough
Farnborough3-4Chelmsford
Chelmsford1-2Farnborough
Farnborough1-1Chelmsford
Chelmsford1-0Farnborough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chelmsford 1540 · Farnborough 1431

	Chelmsford	Draw	Farnborough
Our model	62%	21%	17%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelmsford (rating 1540 vs 1431).
H2H favours Farnborough: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chelmsford	Farnborough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	0.6 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.3	0.1 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +4’	1.44	4.33	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelmsford 2–1–3 Farnborough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/03/26 England National League South	Farnborough	4-2 HT 2-1	Chelmsford
01/09/25 England National League South	Chelmsford	2-5 HT 1-3	Farnborough
08/02/25 England National League South	Farnborough	3-4 HT 2-3	Chelmsford
19/10/24 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-2 HT 1-2	Farnborough
27/02/24 England National League South	Farnborough	1-1 HT 1-1	Chelmsford
05/08/23 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-0 HT 1-0	Farnborough

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	14	9	4	1	35	10	31
2	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
3	Maidstone Utd	15	9	2	4	26	18	29
4	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
5	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
6	Farnham	15	8	2	5	29	19	26
7	Billericay Town	13	7	4	2	32	16	25
8	Tonbridge Angels	15	7	3	5	27	16	24
9	Dag & Red	15	7	3	5	13	11	24
10	Horsham	15	5	7	3	21	16	22
11	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
12	Chelmsford	14	4	9	1	21	14	21
13	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
14	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
15	Weston Super Mare	14	5	3	6	21	21	18
16	Farnborough	15	5	2	8	12	31	17
17	Braintree Town	14	5	1	8	21	34	16
18	AFC Totton	15	5	1	9	14	27	16
19	Maidenhead Utd	15	3	6	6	14	19	15
20	Hemel Hempstead	15	3	6	6	14	22	15
21	Chesham	14	3	2	9	20	32	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	15	2	3	10	18	36	9
23	Walton & Hersham	14	2	2	10	10	33	8
24	Slough	15	1	1	13	15	39	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chelmsford	Farnborough
Dover	1-0 W	0-1 L
Tonbridge Angels	3-3 D	0-4 L
Horsham	0-0 D	0-5 L
Hampton & Richmond	1-1 D	0-2 L
Weston Super Mare	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmsford (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chelmsford

DDDDDWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Farnham England National League South	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
31/10	AFC Totton England National League South	3-0	3-1	6	5	W
27/10	Dover England National League South	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
24/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-0	3-3	8	3	D
10/10	Chesham England National League South	5-0	5-0	2	3	W
26/09	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
12/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	3-2	3-3	2	5	D
05/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	5	3	D

Farnborough

LLLDLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-3	0-6	1	2	L
31/10	Horsham England National League South	0-2	0-5	10	2	L
28/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
24/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
17/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
10/10	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-4	8	2	L
26/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
12/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
08/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
05/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-2	0-4	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chelmsford vs Farnborough?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelmsford win (62%). Probabilities: Chelmsford 62%, draw 21%, Farnborough 17%.

How many goals are expected in Chelmsford vs Farnborough?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Chelmsford 2.26 · Farnborough 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelmsford vs Farnborough?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.