Football · England National League South · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Dag & Red vs Billericay Town

Team pages: Dag & Red · Billericay Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Dag & Red1.35

Billericay Town1.27

1X2

38% 27% 34%

Dag & Red Draw Billericay Town

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Dag & Red 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWDLWLD

Billericay Town 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLDWDWWWDW

Head-to-head

Dag & Red 0–1 Billericay Town (1 last)

Billericay Town3-2Dag & Red

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dag & Red 1480 · Billericay Town 1533

	Dag & Red	Draw	Billericay Town
Our model	38%	29%	34%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Billericay Town (rating 1480 vs 1533).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dag & Red	Billericay Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.7	2.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	1.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +5’	2.30	3.40	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dag & Red 0–0–1 Billericay Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/21 Club Friendly List	Billericay Town	3-2 HT 1-1	Dag & Red

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	14	9	4	1	35	10	31
2	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
3	Maidstone Utd	15	9	2	4	26	18	29
4	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
5	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
6	Farnham	15	8	2	5	29	19	26
7	Billericay Town	13	7	4	2	32	16	25
8	Tonbridge Angels	15	7	3	5	27	16	24
9	Dag & Red	15	7	3	5	13	11	24
10	Horsham	15	5	7	3	21	16	22
11	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
12	Chelmsford	14	4	9	1	21	14	21
13	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
14	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
15	Weston Super Mare	14	5	3	6	21	21	18
16	Farnborough	15	5	2	8	12	31	17
17	Braintree Town	14	5	1	8	21	34	16
18	AFC Totton	15	5	1	9	14	27	16
19	Maidenhead Utd	15	3	6	6	14	19	15
20	Hemel Hempstead	15	3	6	6	14	22	15
21	Chesham	14	3	2	9	20	32	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	15	2	3	10	18	36	9
23	Walton & Hersham	14	2	2	10	10	33	8
24	Slough	15	1	1	13	15	39	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dag & Red	Billericay Town
Maidenhead Utd	0-0 D	2-2 D
Braintree Town	1-2 L	3-2 W
Chesham	2-0 W	2-1 W
Farnborough	0-2 L	4-0 W
Hemel Hempstead	0-0 D	5-0 W
Hampton & Richmond	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Billericay Town (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dag & Red

WDLLWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
27/10	Braintree Town England National League South	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
24/10	Chesham England National League South	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/10	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
10/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
26/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
08/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
05/09	Horsham England National League South	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
31/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	7	6	W

Billericay Town

DLDWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	2-0	5-0	3	4	W
27/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
10/10	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
26/09	Torquay England National League South	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
15/09	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	3-2	9	3	W
12/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	2-2	6	2	D
08/09	Chesham England National League South	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
05/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-2	3-3	6	4	D
31/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-1	2-2	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dag & Red vs Billericay Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dag & Red win (38%). Probabilities: Dag & Red 38%, draw 27%, Billericay Town 34%.

How many goals are expected in Dag & Red vs Billericay Town?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Dag & Red 1.35 · Billericay Town 1.27), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dag & Red vs Billericay Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.