Football · England National League South · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Farnham vs Tonbridge Angels

Team pages: Farnham · Tonbridge Angels

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Farnham1.64

Tonbridge Angels1.52

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Farnham Draw Tonbridge Angels

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Farnham 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLWWLW

Tonbridge Angels 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWDWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Farnham 1544 · Tonbridge Angels 1524

	Farnham	Draw	Tonbridge Angels
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	40%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Farnham	Tonbridge Angels
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.7	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +7’	2.25	3.50	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England National League South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	14	9	4	1	35	10	31
2	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
3	Maidstone Utd	15	9	2	4	26	18	29
4	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
5	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
6	Farnham	15	8	2	5	29	19	26
7	Billericay Town	13	7	4	2	32	16	25
8	Tonbridge Angels	15	7	3	5	27	16	24
9	Dag & Red	15	7	3	5	13	11	24
10	Horsham	15	5	7	3	21	16	22
11	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
12	Chelmsford	14	4	9	1	21	14	21
13	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
14	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
15	Weston Super Mare	14	5	3	6	21	21	18
16	Farnborough	15	5	2	8	12	31	17
17	Braintree Town	14	5	1	8	21	34	16
18	AFC Totton	15	5	1	9	14	27	16
19	Maidenhead Utd	15	3	6	6	14	19	15
20	Hemel Hempstead	15	3	6	6	14	22	15
21	Chesham	14	3	2	9	20	32	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	15	2	3	10	18	36	9
23	Walton & Hersham	14	2	2	10	10	33	8
24	Slough	15	1	1	13	15	39	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Farnham	Tonbridge Angels
Chelmsford	2-0 W	3-3 D
Salisbury FC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Folkestone Invicta	2-1 W	2-0 W
Hemel Hempstead	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tonbridge Angels (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Farnham

WDWWDLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
31/10	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
27/10	Chesham England National League South	2-1	4-2	1	1	W
24/10	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	6-0	6	3	W
10/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
06/10	Truro City England National League South	0-2	2-2	4	2	D
26/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	3-1	3-2	0	3	W
12/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
05/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	2-0	1	5	W

Tonbridge Angels

WWLDLWWDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
27/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-0	2-0	8	7	W
24/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	3-3	4	3	D
17/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
10/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
26/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
12/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
08/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
31/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	3-0	5-1	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Farnham vs Tonbridge Angels?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Farnham win (40%). Probabilities: Farnham 40%, draw 26%, Tonbridge Angels 34%.

How many goals are expected in Farnham vs Tonbridge Angels?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Farnham 1.64 · Tonbridge Angels 1.52), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Farnham vs Tonbridge Angels?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.