Football · England National League South · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Hemel Hempstead vs Maidstone Utd

Team pages: Hemel Hempstead · Maidstone Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Hemel Hempstead1.11

Maidstone Utd1.4

1X2

29% 28% 43%

Hemel Hempstead Draw Maidstone Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hemel Hempstead 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDDDWDLLDL

Maidstone Utd 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWDLW

Head-to-head

Hemel Hempstead 1–4–1 Maidstone Utd (6 last)

Maidstone Utd0-1Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead1-1Maidstone Utd
Hemel Hempstead0-0Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd1-0Hemel Hempstead
Maidstone Utd1-1Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead1-1Maidstone Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hemel Hempstead 1452 · Maidstone Utd 1507

	Hemel Hempstead	Draw	Maidstone Utd
Our model	29%	29%	42%
Market	30%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maidstone Utd (rating 1452 vs 1507).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hemel Hempstead	Maidstone Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.40

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +9’	3.00	3.40	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hemel Hempstead 1–4–1 Maidstone Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	0-1 HT 0-1	Hemel Hempstead
09/08/25 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-1 HT 0-1	Maidstone Utd
15/02/25 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	0-0 HT 0-0	Maidstone Utd
26/10/24 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Hemel Hempstead
10/02/24 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	1-1 HT 1-0	Hemel Hempstead
26/08/23 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-1 HT 0-1	Maidstone Utd

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	14	9	4	1	35	10	31
2	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
3	Maidstone Utd	15	9	2	4	26	18	29
4	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
5	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	34	23	27
6	Farnham	15	8	2	5	29	19	26
7	Billericay Town	13	7	4	2	32	16	25
8	Tonbridge Angels	15	7	3	5	27	16	24
9	Dag & Red	15	7	3	5	13	11	24
10	Horsham	15	5	7	3	21	16	22
11	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
12	Chelmsford	14	4	9	1	21	14	21
13	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
14	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
15	Weston Super Mare	14	5	3	6	21	21	18
16	Farnborough	15	5	2	8	12	31	17
17	Braintree Town	14	5	1	8	21	34	16
18	AFC Totton	15	5	1	9	14	27	16
19	Maidenhead Utd	15	3	6	6	14	19	15
20	Hemel Hempstead	15	3	6	6	14	22	15
21	Chesham	14	3	2	9	20	32	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	15	2	3	10	18	36	9
23	Walton & Hersham	14	2	2	10	10	33	8
24	Slough	15	1	1	13	15	39	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hemel Hempstead	Maidstone Utd
Tonbridge Angels	0-1 L	1-0 W
Slough	2-0 W	2-1 W
Ebbsfleet United	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hemel Hempstead (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hemel Hempstead

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-5	8	4	L
27/10	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-1	3-3	2	3	D
24/10	AFC Totton England National League South	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
17/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
10/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
26/09	Slough England National League South	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
12/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
08/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
05/09	Farnham England National League South	1-1	1-1	11	3	D
31/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	4	L

Maidstone Utd

WWWLLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Slough England National League South	1-0	2-1	8	9	W
27/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-1	1-3	5	7	L
24/10	Torquay England National League South	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
17/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
10/10	Horsham England National League South	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
26/09	Truro City England National League South	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
12/09	Braintree Town England National League South	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
08/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	4-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hemel Hempstead vs Maidstone Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Maidstone Utd win (43%). Probabilities: Hemel Hempstead 29%, draw 28%, Maidstone Utd 43%.

How many goals are expected in Hemel Hempstead vs Maidstone Utd?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Hemel Hempstead 1.11 · Maidstone Utd 1.4), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hemel Hempstead vs Maidstone Utd?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.