Football · England National League South · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Dover vs Chelmsford

Team pages: Dover · Chelmsford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Dover1.11

Chelmsford1.57

1X2

27% 25% 48%

Dover Draw Chelmsford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Dover 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWWWDD

Chelmsford 2-8-0 (W-D-L)

DDWDDDDDWD

Head-to-head

Dover 2–3–1 Chelmsford (6 last)

Chelmsford1-2Dover
Dover0-1Chelmsford
Dover1-0Chelmsford
Chelmsford3-3Dover
Dover0-0Chelmsford
Chelmsford0-0Dover

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dover 1564 · Chelmsford 1547

	Dover	Draw	Chelmsford
Our model	26%	28%	47%
Market	28%	24%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dover: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dover	Chelmsford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.80

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +12’	3.25	3.80	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dover 2–3–1 Chelmsford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-2 HT 0-1	Dover
28/10/25 England National League South	Dover	0-1 HT 0-0	Chelmsford
01/04/24 England National League South	Dover	1-0 HT 1-0	Chelmsford
23/10/23 England National League South	Chelmsford	3-3 HT 1-1	Dover
18/02/23 England National League South	Dover	0-0 HT 0-0	Chelmsford
07/11/22 England National League South	Chelmsford	0-0 HT 0-0	Dover

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	13	8	2	3	23	14	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	7	4	0	26	6	25
3	Truro City	12	7	3	2	21	11	24
4	Dag & Red	13	7	2	4	12	9	23
5	Salisbury FC	12	6	4	2	21	9	22
6	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	6	3	4	24	14	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	5	5	2	26	18	20
9	Farnham	12	6	2	4	23	16	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	5	4	4	20	14	19
11	Dover	12	5	4	3	19	18	19
12	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
13	Horsham	13	4	6	3	15	15	18
14	Torquay	12	4	5	3	19	16	17
15	Chelmsford	11	2	9	0	17	11	15
16	Hemel Hempstead	13	3	5	5	11	14	14
17	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
19	AFC Totton	13	4	1	8	12	24	13
20	Chesham	12	3	1	8	16	26	10
21	Braintree Town	12	3	1	8	18	33	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	2	2	8	14	30	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	2	2	8	10	28	8
24	Slough	13	1	1	11	13	34	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dover	Chelmsford
Salisbury FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Dorking Wanderers	1-1 D	3-3 D
Maidenhead Utd	0-3 L	1-0 W
Chesham	2-2 D	5-0 W
Weston Super Mare	3-2 W	1-1 D
Tonbridge Angels	0-1 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmsford (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dover

LWDDLWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
10/10	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/09	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
12/09	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
08/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
05/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
31/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
22/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-1	3-2	8	1	W
18/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-1	7	7	L

Chelmsford

DDWDDDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-0	3-3	8	3	D
10/10	Chesham England National League South	5-0	5-0	2	3	W
26/09	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
12/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	3-2	3-3	2	5	D
05/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
29/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-0	10	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dover vs Chelmsford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelmsford win (48%). Probabilities: Dover 27%, draw 25%, Chelmsford 48%.

How many goals are expected in Dover vs Chelmsford?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Dover 1.11 · Chelmsford 1.57), with a 60% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dover vs Chelmsford?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.