Football · England National League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Truro City vs Ebbsfleet United

Team pages: Truro City · Ebbsfleet United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Truro City1.35

Ebbsfleet United1.39

1X2

36% 27% 37%

Truro City Draw Ebbsfleet United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Truro City 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWDWWW

Ebbsfleet United 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Truro City 0–3–1 Ebbsfleet United (4 last)

Truro City1-1Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United4-2Truro City
Truro City1-1Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United0-0Truro City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Truro City 1571 · Ebbsfleet United 1592

	Truro City	Draw	Ebbsfleet United
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Truro City	Ebbsfleet United
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	2.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.1	3.5 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +4’	2.50	3.40	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Truro City 0–3–1 Ebbsfleet United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/17 England National League South	Truro City	1-1 HT 1-0	Ebbsfleet United
05/11/16 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	4-2 HT 1-1	Truro City
20/02/16 England National League South	Truro City	1-1 HT 1-0	Ebbsfleet United
09/01/16 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	0-0 HT 0-0	Truro City

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	12	8	4	0	29	7	28
2	Truro City	13	8	3	2	24	12	27
3	Maidstone Utd	14	8	2	4	24	17	26
4	Salisbury FC	13	7	4	2	23	9	25
5	Tonbridge Angels	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
6	Farnham	13	7	2	4	27	18	23
7	Dag & Red	14	7	2	5	13	11	23
8	Billericay Town	12	6	4	2	27	16	22
9	Dorking Wanderers	13	5	6	2	29	21	21
10	Folkestone Invicta	14	5	4	5	20	16	19
11	Dover	13	5	4	4	19	19	19
12	Horsham	14	4	7	3	16	16	19
13	Chelmsford	12	3	9	0	18	11	18
14	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
15	Torquay	13	4	5	4	19	17	17
16	AFC Totton	14	5	1	8	13	24	16
17	Hemel Hempstead	14	3	6	5	14	17	15
18	Maidenhead Utd	14	3	5	6	14	19	14
19	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
20	Braintree Town	13	4	1	8	20	34	13
21	Chesham	13	3	1	9	18	30	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	13	2	3	8	16	32	9
23	Walton & Hersham	13	2	2	9	10	30	8
24	Slough	14	1	1	12	14	37	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Truro City	Ebbsfleet United
Slough	3-1 W	1-1 D
Hampton & Richmond	4-3 W	2-0 W
Maidstone Utd	2-1 W	3-1 W
Salisbury FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ebbsfleet United (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Truro City

WLWDLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Slough England National League South	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
24/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-2	4-3	2	3	W
10/10	Braintree Town England National League South	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
06/10	Farnham England National League South	2-0	2-2	7	2	D
26/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
15/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
12/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
05/09	Chesham England National League South	1-1	3-1	11	1	W
31/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
29/08	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	3-0	6	5	W

Ebbsfleet United

DWDWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	3-1	6	7	W
24/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	2-0	4-0	5	4	W
20/10	Horsham England National League South	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
17/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	4-0	6-1	10	5	W
13/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	5-0	5	5	W
10/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
06/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
26/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
12/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	1-1	8	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Truro City vs Ebbsfleet United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ebbsfleet United win (37%). Probabilities: Truro City 36%, draw 27%, Ebbsfleet United 37%.

How many goals are expected in Truro City vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Truro City 1.35 · Ebbsfleet United 1.39), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Truro City vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.