Football · England National League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Totton vs Chelmsford

Team pages: AFC Totton · Chelmsford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

AFC Totton1.1

Chelmsford1.59

1X2

26% 26% 48%

AFC Totton Draw Chelmsford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Totton 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLWW

Chelmsford 3-7-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AFC Totton 1–1–0 Chelmsford (2 last)

Chelmsford1-1AFC Totton
AFC Totton2-1Chelmsford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Totton 1443 · Chelmsford 1564

	AFC Totton	Draw	Chelmsford
Our model	25%	27%	47%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelmsford (rating 1443 vs 1564).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Totton	Chelmsford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.3	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.60

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:49 +17’	3.40	3.60	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Totton 1–1–0 Chelmsford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/03/26 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-1 HT 1-0	AFC Totton
25/10/25 England National League South	AFC Totton	2-1 HT 2-1	Chelmsford

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	12	8	4	0	29	7	28
2	Truro City	13	8	3	2	24	12	27
3	Maidstone Utd	14	8	2	4	24	17	26
4	Salisbury FC	13	7	4	2	23	9	25
5	Tonbridge Angels	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
6	Farnham	13	7	2	4	27	18	23
7	Dag & Red	14	7	2	5	13	11	23
8	Billericay Town	12	6	4	2	27	16	22
9	Dorking Wanderers	13	5	6	2	29	21	21
10	Folkestone Invicta	14	5	4	5	20	16	19
11	Dover	13	5	4	4	19	19	19
12	Horsham	14	4	7	3	16	16	19
13	Chelmsford	12	3	9	0	18	11	18
14	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
15	Torquay	13	4	5	4	19	17	17
16	AFC Totton	14	5	1	8	13	24	16
17	Hemel Hempstead	14	3	6	5	14	17	15
18	Maidenhead Utd	14	3	5	6	14	19	14
19	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
20	Braintree Town	13	4	1	8	20	34	13
21	Chesham	13	3	1	9	18	30	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	13	2	3	8	16	32	9
23	Walton & Hersham	13	2	2	9	10	30	8
24	Slough	14	1	1	12	14	37	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Totton	Chelmsford
Folkestone Invicta	1-2 L	1-1 D
Dover	0-2 L	1-0 W
Weston Super Mare	1-3 L	1-1 D
Hampton & Richmond	4-1 W	1-1 D
Maidenhead Utd	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmsford (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Totton

DWLLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Torquay England National League South	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
24/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
17/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
13/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-5	3	5	L
10/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
26/09	Dover England National League South	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
12/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
08/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
05/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	3-0	4-1	7	7	W
31/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	6	D

Chelmsford

DWDDDDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Dover England National League South	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
24/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-0	3-3	8	3	D
10/10	Chesham England National League South	5-0	5-0	2	3	W
26/09	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
12/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	3-2	3-3	2	5	D
05/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
29/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-1	6	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Totton vs Chelmsford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelmsford win (48%). Probabilities: AFC Totton 26%, draw 26%, Chelmsford 48%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Totton vs Chelmsford?

The model expects 2.69 goals (AFC Totton 1.1 · Chelmsford 1.59), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Totton vs Chelmsford?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.