Football · England National League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Billericay Town vs Hemel Hempstead

Team pages: Billericay Town · Hemel Hempstead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Billericay Town1.76

Hemel Hempstead1.19

1X2

50% 25% 25%

Billericay Town Draw Hemel Hempstead

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Billericay Town 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDWDWWWD

Hemel Hempstead 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDDWDLLD

Head-to-head

Billericay Town 3–3 Hemel Hempstead (6 last)

Hemel Hempstead2-1Billericay Town
Billericay Town2-3Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead1-4Billericay Town
Hemel Hempstead3-0Billericay Town
Billericay Town2-1Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead0-2Billericay Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Billericay Town 1533 · Hemel Hempstead 1454

	Billericay Town	Draw	Hemel Hempstead
Our model	50%	26%	25%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Billericay Town (rating 1533 vs 1454).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Billericay Town	Hemel Hempstead
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:58 +8’	1.80	3.60	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Billericay Town 3–0–3 Hemel Hempstead

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/02/22 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	2-1 HT 0-1	Billericay Town
25/09/21 England National League South	Billericay Town	2-3 HT 1-1	Hemel Hempstead
03/11/20 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-4 HT 1-2	Billericay Town
26/08/19 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	3-0 HT 0-0	Billericay Town
20/04/19 England National League South	Billericay Town	2-1 HT 1-0	Hemel Hempstead
08/09/18 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	0-2 HT 0-0	Billericay Town

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	12	8	4	0	29	7	28
2	Truro City	13	8	3	2	24	12	27
3	Maidstone Utd	14	8	2	4	24	17	26
4	Salisbury FC	13	7	4	2	23	9	25
5	Tonbridge Angels	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
6	Farnham	13	7	2	4	27	18	23
7	Dag & Red	14	7	2	5	13	11	23
8	Billericay Town	12	6	4	2	27	16	22
9	Dorking Wanderers	13	5	6	2	29	21	21
10	Folkestone Invicta	14	5	4	5	20	16	19
11	Dover	13	5	4	4	19	19	19
12	Horsham	14	4	7	3	16	16	19
13	Chelmsford	12	3	9	0	18	11	18
14	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
15	Torquay	13	4	5	4	19	17	17
16	AFC Totton	14	5	1	8	13	24	16
17	Hemel Hempstead	14	3	6	5	14	17	15
18	Maidenhead Utd	14	3	5	6	14	19	14
19	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
20	Braintree Town	13	4	1	8	20	34	13
21	Chesham	13	3	1	9	18	30	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	13	2	3	8	16	32	9
23	Walton & Hersham	13	2	2	9	10	30	8
24	Slough	14	1	1	12	14	37	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Billericay Town	Hemel Hempstead
Dorking Wanderers	3-3 D	3-3 D
Tonbridge Angels	2-2 D	0-1 L
Farnham	4-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Billericay Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Billericay Town

WDLDWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
10/10	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
26/09	Torquay England National League South	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
15/09	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	3-2	9	3	W
12/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	2-2	6	2	D
08/09	Chesham England National League South	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
05/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-2	3-3	6	4	D
31/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-1	2-2	4	6	D
22/08	Farnham England National League South	3-1	4-2	2	2	W

Hemel Hempstead

LLDDDWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-1	3-3	2	3	D
24/10	AFC Totton England National League South	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
17/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
10/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
26/09	Slough England National League South	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
12/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
08/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
05/09	Farnham England National League South	1-1	1-1	11	3	D
31/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
29/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-3	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Billericay Town vs Hemel Hempstead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Billericay Town win (50%). Probabilities: Billericay Town 50%, draw 25%, Hemel Hempstead 25%.

How many goals are expected in Billericay Town vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Billericay Town 1.76 · Hemel Hempstead 1.19), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Billericay Town vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.