Football · England National League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Chesham vs Folkestone Invicta

Team pages: Chesham · Folkestone Invicta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Chesham1.66

Folkestone Invicta1.76

1X2

36% 24% 40%

Chesham Draw Folkestone Invicta

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chesham 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWLLLL

Folkestone Invicta 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLDWWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chesham 1445 · Folkestone Invicta 1467

	Chesham	Draw	Folkestone Invicta
Our model	36%	24%	40%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chesham	Folkestone Invicta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.3	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +6’	2.50	3.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	12	8	4	0	29	7	28
2	Truro City	13	8	3	2	24	12	27
3	Maidstone Utd	14	8	2	4	24	17	26
4	Salisbury FC	13	7	4	2	23	9	25
5	Tonbridge Angels	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
6	Farnham	13	7	2	4	27	18	23
7	Dag & Red	14	7	2	5	13	11	23
8	Billericay Town	12	6	4	2	27	16	22
9	Dorking Wanderers	13	5	6	2	29	21	21
10	Folkestone Invicta	14	5	4	5	20	16	19
11	Dover	13	5	4	4	19	19	19
12	Horsham	14	4	7	3	16	16	19
13	Chelmsford	12	3	9	0	18	11	18
14	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
15	Torquay	13	4	5	4	19	17	17
16	AFC Totton	14	5	1	8	13	24	16
17	Hemel Hempstead	14	3	6	5	14	17	15
18	Maidenhead Utd	14	3	5	6	14	19	14
19	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
20	Braintree Town	13	4	1	8	20	34	13
21	Chesham	13	3	1	9	18	30	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	13	2	3	8	16	32	9
23	Walton & Hersham	13	2	2	9	10	30	8
24	Slough	14	1	1	12	14	37	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chesham	Folkestone Invicta
Farnham	2-4 L	1-2 L
Horsham	4-1 W	1-1 D
AFC Totton	4-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chesham (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chesham

WWDLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Farnham England National League South	1-2	2-4	7	1	L
24/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
10/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-5	0-5	3	3	L
26/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
12/09	Horsham England National League South	1-0	4-1	6	11	W
08/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
05/09	Truro City England National League South	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
31/08	Dover England National League South	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	AFC Totton England National League South	3-0	4-0	3	4	W
22/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	4	5	W

Folkestone Invicta

WLDLLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
24/10	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
17/10	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
10/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
06/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
26/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
12/09	Farnham England National League South	0-1	1-2	10	1	L
08/09	Horsham England National League South	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Torquay England National League South	0-2	2-3	6	4	L
31/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	2-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chesham vs Folkestone Invicta?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Folkestone Invicta win (40%). Probabilities: Chesham 36%, draw 24%, Folkestone Invicta 40%.

How many goals are expected in Chesham vs Folkestone Invicta?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Chesham 1.66 · Folkestone Invicta 1.76), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chesham vs Folkestone Invicta?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.