Football · England National League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Dorking Wanderers vs Weston Super Mare

Team pages: Dorking Wanderers · Weston Super Mare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Dorking Wanderers2.09

Weston Super Mare1.59

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Dorking Wanderers Draw Weston Super Mare

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Dorking Wanderers 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDDDWDWD

Weston Super Mare 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWWLDL

Head-to-head

Dorking Wanderers 2–2–1 Weston Super Mare (5 last)

Weston Super Mare1-1Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers3-2Weston Super Mare
Dorking Wanderers1-3Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare1-1Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers1-0Weston Super Mare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dorking Wanderers 1545 · Weston Super Mare 1482

	Dorking Wanderers	Draw	Weston Super Mare
Our model	48%	23%	29%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dorking Wanderers (rating 1545 vs 1482).
H2H favours Dorking Wanderers: 2-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dorking Wanderers	Weston Super Mare
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.3	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.2	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.60

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:49 +17’	1.90	3.60	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dorking Wanderers 2–2–1 Weston Super Mare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	1-1 HT 0-1	Dorking Wanderers
16/12/25 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	3-2 HT 2-0	Weston Super Mare
18/01/25 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	1-3 HT 0-0	Weston Super Mare
21/09/24 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	1-1 HT 1-1	Dorking Wanderers
02/10/21 England FA Cup Qualification	Dorking Wanderers	1-0 HT 1-0	Weston Super Mare

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	12	8	4	0	29	7	28
2	Truro City	13	8	3	2	24	12	27
3	Maidstone Utd	14	8	2	4	24	17	26
4	Salisbury FC	13	7	4	2	23	9	25
5	Tonbridge Angels	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
6	Farnham	13	7	2	4	27	18	23
7	Dag & Red	14	7	2	5	13	11	23
8	Billericay Town	12	6	4	2	27	16	22
9	Dorking Wanderers	13	5	6	2	29	21	21
10	Folkestone Invicta	14	5	4	5	20	16	19
11	Dover	13	5	4	4	19	19	19
12	Horsham	14	4	7	3	16	16	19
13	Chelmsford	12	3	9	0	18	11	18
14	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
15	Torquay	13	4	5	4	19	17	17
16	AFC Totton	14	5	1	8	13	24	16
17	Hemel Hempstead	14	3	6	5	14	17	15
18	Maidenhead Utd	14	3	5	6	14	19	14
19	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
20	Braintree Town	13	4	1	8	20	34	13
21	Chesham	13	3	1	9	18	30	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	13	2	3	8	16	32	9
23	Walton & Hersham	13	2	2	9	10	30	8
24	Slough	14	1	1	12	14	37	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dorking Wanderers	Weston Super Mare
Hemel Hempstead	3-3 D	3-1 W
Dover	1-1 D	2-3 L
Torquay	2-2 D	0-0 D
Chelmsford	3-3 D	1-1 D
Maidstone Utd	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dorking Wanderers

LWWDDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-2	3-3	13	3	D
24/10	Slough England National League South	0-1	3-1	6	4	W
10/10	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
26/09	Braintree Town England National League South	2-2	4-3	3	5	W
12/09	Torquay England National League South	1-1	2-2	8	8	D
08/09	Chelmsford England National League South	2-3	3-3	3	5	D
05/09	Billericay Town England National League South	2-2	3-3	7	4	D
31/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
29/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	2-1	4-1	6	3	W
22/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-1	2-3	8	3	L

Weston Super Mare

DLWDLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-4	1-6	3	5	L
10/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
26/09	Farnham England National League South	1-3	2-3	5	3	L
12/09	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
08/09	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
05/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
31/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
29/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
22/08	Dover England National League South	1-1	2-3	10	1	L
18/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dorking Wanderers vs Weston Super Mare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dorking Wanderers win (48%). Probabilities: Dorking Wanderers 48%, draw 24%, Weston Super Mare 28%.

How many goals are expected in Dorking Wanderers vs Weston Super Mare?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Dorking Wanderers 2.09 · Weston Super Mare 1.59), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dorking Wanderers vs Weston Super Mare?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.