Football · England National League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Dover vs Farnham

Team pages: Dover · Farnham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Dover1.61

Farnham1.88

1X2

33% 24% 44%

Dover Draw Farnham

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Dover 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWWDDL

Farnham 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWDLWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dover 1553 · Farnham 1533

	Dover	Draw	Farnham
Our model	32%	24%	44%
Market	33%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dover	Farnham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	2.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	1.5 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.80

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +9’	2.75	3.80	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	12	8	4	0	29	7	28
2	Truro City	13	8	3	2	24	12	27
3	Maidstone Utd	14	8	2	4	24	17	26
4	Salisbury FC	13	7	4	2	23	9	25
5	Tonbridge Angels	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
6	Farnham	13	7	2	4	27	18	23
7	Dag & Red	14	7	2	5	13	11	23
8	Billericay Town	12	6	4	2	27	16	22
9	Dorking Wanderers	13	5	6	2	29	21	21
10	Folkestone Invicta	14	5	4	5	20	16	19
11	Dover	13	5	4	4	19	19	19
12	Horsham	14	4	7	3	16	16	19
13	Chelmsford	12	3	9	0	18	11	18
14	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
15	Torquay	13	4	5	4	19	17	17
16	AFC Totton	14	5	1	8	13	24	16
17	Hemel Hempstead	14	3	6	5	14	17	15
18	Maidenhead Utd	14	3	5	6	14	19	14
19	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
20	Braintree Town	13	4	1	8	20	34	13
21	Chesham	13	3	1	9	18	30	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	13	2	3	8	16	32	9
23	Walton & Hersham	13	2	2	9	10	30	8
24	Slough	14	1	1	12	14	37	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dover	Farnham
Salisbury FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Chesham	2-2 D	4-2 W
Braintree Town	3-3 D	6-0 W
Weston Super Mare	3-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Farnham (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dover

WDDLWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
24/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
10/10	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/09	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
12/09	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
08/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
05/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
31/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
22/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-1	3-2	8	1	W

Farnham

LWWDWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Chesham England National League South	2-1	4-2	1	1	W
24/10	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	6-0	6	3	W
10/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
06/10	Truro City England National League South	0-2	2-2	4	2	D
26/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	3-1	3-2	0	3	W
12/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
05/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
29/08	Horsham England National League South	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
22/08	Billericay Town England National League South	1-3	2-4	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dover vs Farnham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Farnham win (44%). Probabilities: Dover 33%, draw 24%, Farnham 44%.

How many goals are expected in Dover vs Farnham?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Dover 1.61 · Farnham 1.88), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dover vs Farnham?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.