Football · England National League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Maidenhead Utd vs Dag & Red

Team pages: Maidenhead Utd · Dag & Red

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Maidenhead Utd1.12

Dag & Red1.12

1X2

36% 29% 36%

Maidenhead Utd Draw Dag & Red

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Maidenhead Utd 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWLLLD

Dag & Red 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWDLWL

Head-to-head

Maidenhead Utd 2–1–3 Dag & Red (6 last)

Maidenhead Utd2-0Dag & Red
Dag & Red1-0Maidenhead Utd
Dag & Red1-0Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd1-1Dag & Red
Dag & Red4-1Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd1-0Dag & Red

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maidenhead Utd 1459 · Dag & Red 1477

	Maidenhead Utd	Draw	Dag & Red
Our model	34%	31%	34%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dag & Red: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maidenhead Utd	Dag & Red
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	0.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.2	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.5	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +10’	2.45	3.40	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maidenhead Utd 2–1–3 Dag & Red

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England National League South	Maidenhead Utd	2-0 HT 1-0	Dag & Red
22/11/25 England National League South	Dag & Red	1-0 HT 0-0	Maidenhead Utd
29/03/25 England National League	Dag & Red	1-0 HT 0-0	Maidenhead Utd
07/09/24 England National League	Maidenhead Utd	1-1 HT 1-0	Dag & Red
16/03/24 England National League	Dag & Red	4-1 HT 2-0	Maidenhead Utd
19/08/23 England National League	Maidenhead Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Dag & Red

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	12	8	4	0	29	7	28
2	Truro City	13	8	3	2	24	12	27
3	Maidstone Utd	14	8	2	4	24	17	26
4	Salisbury FC	13	7	4	2	23	9	25
5	Tonbridge Angels	14	7	3	4	26	14	24
6	Farnham	13	7	2	4	27	18	23
7	Dag & Red	14	7	2	5	13	11	23
8	Billericay Town	12	6	4	2	27	16	22
9	Dorking Wanderers	13	5	6	2	29	21	21
10	Folkestone Invicta	14	5	4	5	20	16	19
11	Dover	13	5	4	4	19	19	19
12	Horsham	14	4	7	3	16	16	19
13	Chelmsford	12	3	9	0	18	11	18
14	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
15	Torquay	13	4	5	4	19	17	17
16	AFC Totton	14	5	1	8	13	24	16
17	Hemel Hempstead	14	3	6	5	14	17	15
18	Maidenhead Utd	14	3	5	6	14	19	14
19	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
20	Braintree Town	13	4	1	8	20	34	13
21	Chesham	13	3	1	9	18	30	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	13	2	3	8	16	32	9
23	Walton & Hersham	13	2	2	9	10	30	8
24	Slough	14	1	1	12	14	37	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maidenhead Utd	Dag & Red
Horsham	1-1 D	1-1 D
Chesham	4-0 W	2-0 W
Dover	3-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Maidenhead Utd (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maidenhead Utd

LDWLDWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Horsham England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	0	D
24/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
17/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
10/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
26/09	Chesham England National League South	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
12/09	Billericay Town England National League South	1-1	2-2	10	2	D
08/09	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-4	2	9	L
05/09	Dover England National League South	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
31/08	AFC Totton England National League South	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
29/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	3	L

Dag & Red

LWDLLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Braintree Town England National League South	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
24/10	Chesham England National League South	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/10	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
10/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
26/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
08/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
05/09	Horsham England National League South	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
31/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
29/08	Truro City England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maidenhead Utd vs Dag & Red?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maidenhead Utd win (36%). Probabilities: Maidenhead Utd 36%, draw 29%, Dag & Red 36%.

How many goals are expected in Maidenhead Utd vs Dag & Red?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Maidenhead Utd 1.12 · Dag & Red 1.12), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Maidenhead Utd vs Dag & Red?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.