Football · England National League South · 24/10, 16:00
Prediction: Chelmsford vs Tonbridge Angels
Team pages: Chelmsford · Tonbridge Angels
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Chelmsford1.54
Tonbridge Angels0.97
1X2
Chelmsford
Draw
Tonbridge Angels
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Chelmsford
2-8-0 (W-D-L)
Tonbridge Angels
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chelmsford
3–2–1
Tonbridge Angels
(6 last)
- Chelmsford1-0Tonbridge Angels
- Tonbridge Angels2-4Chelmsford
- Tonbridge Angels2-1Chelmsford
- Chelmsford1-1Tonbridge Angels
- Chelmsford3-0Tonbridge Angels
- Tonbridge Angels1-1Chelmsford
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chelmsford 1567 · Tonbridge Angels 1500
| Chelmsford | Draw | Tonbridge Angels | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelmsford (rating 1567 vs 1500).
- H2H favours Chelmsford: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chelmsford | Tonbridge Angels | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.5 | 2.5 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.2 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelmsford 3–2–1 Tonbridge Angels
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/26 England National League South | Chelmsford | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Tonbridge Angels |
| 04/11/25 England National League South | Tonbridge Angels | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Chelmsford |
| 22/03/25 England National League South | Tonbridge Angels | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Chelmsford |
| 19/08/24 England National League South | Chelmsford | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Tonbridge Angels |
| 13/04/24 England National League South | Chelmsford | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Tonbridge Angels |
| 04/11/23 England National League South | Tonbridge Angels | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Chelmsford |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 6 | 22 |
| 3 | Salisbury FC | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 21 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 11 | 20 |
| 7 | Dag & Red | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Weston Super Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
| 9 | Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 18 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 16 |
| 13 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 16 |
| 14 | Horsham | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 15 |
| 15 | Chelmsford | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 14 | 8 | 14 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead Utd | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| 19 | Chesham | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 27 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chelmsford | Tonbridge Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Maidenhead Utd | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Truro City | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Hemel Hempstead | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chelmsford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Chesham England National League South |
5-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Horsham England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Hampton & Richmond England National League South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 08/09 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
3-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Salisbury FC England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Folkestone Invicta England National League South |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 15/08 | Truro City England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | D |
Tonbridge Angels
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 26/09 | Ebbsfleet United England National League South |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 08/09 | Maidstone Utd England National League South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Farnborough England National League South |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Walton & Hersham England National League South |
3-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Billericay Town England National League South |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Truro City England National League South |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 18/08 | Dover England National League South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chelmsford vs Tonbridge Angels?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelmsford win (50%). Probabilities: Chelmsford 50%, draw 26%, Tonbridge Angels 23%.
How many goals are expected in Chelmsford vs Tonbridge Angels?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Chelmsford 1.54 · Tonbridge Angels 0.97), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelmsford vs Tonbridge Angels?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.