Football · England National League South · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Farnham vs Braintree Town

Team pages: Farnham · Braintree Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Farnham2.13

Braintree Town1.52

1X2

50% 23% 26%

Farnham Draw Braintree Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Farnham 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Braintree Town 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Farnham 1513 · Braintree Town 1448

	Farnham	Draw	Braintree Town
Our model	51%	23%	27%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Farnham (rating 1513 vs 1448).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Farnham	Braintree Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.75

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +3’	1.80	3.75	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	12	8	1	3	22	13	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	6	4	0	22	6	22
3	Salisbury FC	11	6	3	2	20	8	21
4	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
5	Truro City	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	6	2	4	21	11	20
7	Dag & Red	12	6	2	4	10	9	20
8	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
9	Dover	11	5	3	3	18	17	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	23	17	17
11	Farnham	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	4	4	4	18	14	16
13	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18	15	16
14	Horsham	12	3	6	3	14	15	15
15	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14	8	14
16	Hemel Hempstead	12	3	5	4	10	11	14
17	Farnborough	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	12	3	4	5	13	14	13
19	Chesham	11	3	1	7	16	24	10
20	Braintree Town	11	3	1	7	18	27	10
21	AFC Totton	12	3	1	8	9	23	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	11	26	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	10	27	8
24	Slough	12	1	1	10	12	31	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Farnham	Braintree Town
Truro City	2-2 D	1-2 L
Horsham	2-1 W	1-2 L
Billericay Town	2-4 L	2-3 L
Slough	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Farnham (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Farnham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
06/10	Truro City England National League South	0-2	2-2	4	2	D
26/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	3-1	3-2	0	3	W
12/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
05/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
29/08	Horsham England National League South	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
22/08	Billericay Town England National League South	1-3	2-4	4	2	L
18/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
14/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Braintree Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Truro City England National League South	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
06/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
26/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-2	3-4	6	5	L
15/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
12/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
05/09	Slough England National League South	1-1	2-1	11	8	W
31/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
29/08	Dover England National League South	1-2	3-3	3	4	D
22/08	Horsham England National League South	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
15/08	Chesham England National League South	2-1	3-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Farnham vs Braintree Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Farnham win (50%). Probabilities: Farnham 50%, draw 23%, Braintree Town 26%.

How many goals are expected in Farnham vs Braintree Town?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Farnham 2.13 · Braintree Town 1.52), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Farnham vs Braintree Town?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.