Football · England National League South · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hemel Hempstead vs AFC Totton

Team pages: Hemel Hempstead · AFC Totton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Hemel Hempstead1.47

AFC Totton0.84

1X2

52% 27% 21%

Hemel Hempstead Draw AFC Totton

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hemel Hempstead 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDDDWDL

AFC Totton 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Hemel Hempstead 1–1 AFC Totton (2 last)

Hemel Hempstead2-0AFC Totton
AFC Totton2-1Hemel Hempstead

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hemel Hempstead 1489 · AFC Totton 1388

	Hemel Hempstead	Draw	AFC Totton
Our model	51%	29%	20%
Market	52%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hemel Hempstead (rating 1489 vs 1388).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hemel Hempstead	AFC Totton
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1	0.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	1.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +3’	1.70	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hemel Hempstead 1–0–1 AFC Totton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	2-0 HT 1-0	AFC Totton
18/10/25 England National League South	AFC Totton	2-1 HT 2-1	Hemel Hempstead

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	12	8	1	3	22	13	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	6	4	0	22	6	22
3	Salisbury FC	11	6	3	2	20	8	21
4	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
5	Truro City	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	6	2	4	21	11	20
7	Dag & Red	12	6	2	4	10	9	20
8	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
9	Dover	11	5	3	3	18	17	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	23	17	17
11	Farnham	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	4	4	4	18	14	16
13	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18	15	16
14	Horsham	12	3	6	3	14	15	15
15	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14	8	14
16	Hemel Hempstead	12	3	5	4	10	11	14
17	Farnborough	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	12	3	4	5	13	14	13
19	Chesham	11	3	1	7	16	24	10
20	Braintree Town	11	3	1	7	18	27	10
21	AFC Totton	12	3	1	8	9	23	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	11	26	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	10	27	8
24	Slough	12	1	1	10	12	31	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hemel Hempstead	AFC Totton
Slough	2-0 W	0-1 L
Ebbsfleet United	0-0 D	0-5 L
Folkestone Invicta	0-2 L	1-2 L
Weston Super Mare	1-3 L	1-3 L
Maidenhead Utd	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hemel Hempstead

LWLLDDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
10/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
26/09	Slough England National League South	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
12/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
08/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
05/09	Farnham England National League South	1-1	1-1	11	3	D
31/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
29/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
22/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
18/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

AFC Totton

LLDWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
13/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-5	3	5	L
10/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
26/09	Dover England National League South	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
12/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
08/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
05/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	3-0	4-1	7	7	W
31/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
29/08	Chesham England National League South	0-3	0-4	6	4	L
18/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-2	0-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hemel Hempstead vs AFC Totton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hemel Hempstead win (52%). Probabilities: Hemel Hempstead 52%, draw 27%, AFC Totton 21%.

How many goals are expected in Hemel Hempstead vs AFC Totton?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Hemel Hempstead 1.47 · AFC Totton 0.84), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hemel Hempstead vs AFC Totton?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.