Football · England National League South · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Salisbury FC vs Dover

Team pages: Salisbury FC · Dover

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Salisbury FC1.96

Dover1.17

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Salisbury FC Draw Dover

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Salisbury FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Dover 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Salisbury FC 1–1 Dover (2 last)

Salisbury FC2-1Dover
Dover2-0Salisbury FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Salisbury FC 1591 · Dover 1560

	Salisbury FC	Draw	Dover
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Salisbury FC	Dover
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +4’	1.61	3.90	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Salisbury FC 1–0–1 Dover

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England National League South	Salisbury FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Dover
23/08/25 England National League South	Dover	2-0 HT 1-0	Salisbury FC

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	12	8	1	3	22	13	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	6	4	0	22	6	22
3	Salisbury FC	11	6	3	2	20	8	21
4	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
5	Truro City	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	6	2	4	21	11	20
7	Dag & Red	12	6	2	4	10	9	20
8	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
9	Dover	11	5	3	3	18	17	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	23	17	17
11	Farnham	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	4	4	4	18	14	16
13	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18	15	16
14	Horsham	12	3	6	3	14	15	15
15	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14	8	14
16	Hemel Hempstead	12	3	5	4	10	11	14
17	Farnborough	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	12	3	4	5	13	14	13
19	Chesham	11	3	1	7	16	24	10
20	Braintree Town	11	3	1	7	18	27	10
21	AFC Totton	12	3	1	8	9	23	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	11	26	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	10	27	8
24	Slough	12	1	1	10	12	31	4

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Salisbury FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Farnham England National League South	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	2-0	2-0	9	0	W
15/09	Truro City England National League South	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
12/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
08/09	Slough England National League South	2-1	5-1	3	3	W
05/09	Chelmsford England National League South	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
29/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
15/08	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Dover

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/09	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
12/09	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
08/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
05/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
31/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
22/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-1	3-2	8	1	W
18/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
15/08	Slough England National League South	3-0	5-3	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Salisbury FC vs Dover?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Salisbury FC win (55%). Probabilities: Salisbury FC 55%, draw 23%, Dover 22%.

How many goals are expected in Salisbury FC vs Dover?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Salisbury FC 1.96 · Dover 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Salisbury FC vs Dover?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.