Football · England National League South · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: AFC Totton vs Torquay

Team pages: AFC Totton · Torquay

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

AFC Totton0.99

Torquay1.82

1X2

20% 23% 57%

AFC Totton Draw Torquay

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Totton 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLLLLW

Torquay 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWWDLWD

Head-to-head

AFC Totton 2–1 Torquay (3 last)

AFC Totton1-0Torquay
AFC Totton2-0Torquay
Torquay3-1AFC Totton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Totton 1427 · Torquay 1515

	AFC Totton	Draw	Torquay
Our model	19%	25%	56%
Market	21%	22%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torquay (rating 1427 vs 1515).
H2H favours AFC Totton: 2-0-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Totton	Torquay
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.2	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.10

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.77

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +12’	4.33	4.10	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Totton 2–0–1 Torquay

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 England National League South	AFC Totton	1-0 HT 1-0	Torquay
13/09/25 England FA Cup Qualification	AFC Totton	2-0 HT 1-0	Torquay
19/08/25 England National League South	Torquay	3-1 HT 2-1	AFC Totton

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	13	8	2	3	23	14	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	7	4	0	26	6	25
3	Truro City	12	7	3	2	21	11	24
4	Dag & Red	13	7	2	4	12	9	23
5	Salisbury FC	12	6	4	2	21	9	22
6	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	6	3	4	24	14	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	5	5	2	26	18	20
9	Farnham	12	6	2	4	23	16	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	5	4	4	20	14	19
11	Dover	12	5	4	3	19	18	19
12	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
13	Horsham	13	4	6	3	15	15	18
14	Torquay	12	4	5	3	19	16	17
15	Chelmsford	11	2	9	0	17	11	15
16	Hemel Hempstead	13	3	5	5	11	14	14
17	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
19	AFC Totton	13	4	1	8	12	24	13
20	Chesham	12	3	1	8	16	26	10
21	Braintree Town	12	3	1	8	18	33	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	2	2	8	14	30	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	2	2	8	10	28	8
24	Slough	13	1	1	11	13	34	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Totton	Torquay
Folkestone Invicta	1-2 L	3-2 W
Slough	0-1 L	5-1 W
Weston Super Mare	1-3 L	0-0 D
Hampton & Richmond	4-1 W	1-1 D
Maidenhead Utd	1-1 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Torquay (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Totton

LDWLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
17/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
13/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-5	3	5	L
10/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
26/09	Dover England National League South	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
12/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
08/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
05/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	3-0	4-1	7	7	W
31/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
29/08	Chesham England National League South	0-3	0-4	6	4	L

Torquay

DLDLWWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
10/10	Slough England National League South	0-0	5-1	6	4	W
26/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
12/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-1	2-2	6	8	D
08/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	4-0	2	9	W
05/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
31/08	Farnham England National League South	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
29/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
22/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
18/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-0	9	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Totton vs Torquay?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Torquay win (57%). Probabilities: AFC Totton 20%, draw 23%, Torquay 57%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Totton vs Torquay?

The model expects 2.82 goals (AFC Totton 0.99 · Torquay 1.82), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Totton vs Torquay?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.