Football · England National League South · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Braintree Town vs Dag & Red

Team pages: Braintree Town · Dag & Red

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Braintree Town1.07

Dag & Red1.84

1X2

21% 24% 55%

Braintree Town Draw Dag & Red

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Braintree Town 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLLLL

Dag & Red 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLWDLW

Head-to-head

Braintree Town 2–1–3 Dag & Red (6 last)

Braintree Town0-0Dag & Red
Dag & Red2-4Braintree Town
Braintree Town3-4Dag & Red
Braintree Town2-0Dag & Red
Dag & Red1-0Braintree Town
Dag & Red3-0Braintree Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Braintree Town 1424 · Dag & Red 1512

	Braintree Town	Draw	Dag & Red
Our model	21%	25%	54%
Market	22%	22%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dag & Red (rating 1424 vs 1512).
H2H favours Dag & Red: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Braintree Town	Dag & Red
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.7	0.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	3.1 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.10

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +12’	4.10	4.00	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Braintree Town 2–1–3 Dag & Red

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/25 England National League	Braintree Town	0-0 HT 0-0	Dag & Red
26/12/24 England National League	Dag & Red	2-4 HT 1-2	Braintree Town
17/07/21 UK Friendlies	Braintree Town	3-4 HT 1-2	Dag & Red
22/04/19 England National League	Braintree Town	2-0 HT 0-0	Dag & Red
04/09/18 England National League	Dag & Red	1-0 HT 0-0	Braintree Town
02/01/17 England National League	Dag & Red	3-0 HT 2-0	Braintree Town

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	13	8	2	3	23	14	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	7	4	0	26	6	25
3	Truro City	12	7	3	2	21	11	24
4	Dag & Red	13	7	2	4	12	9	23
5	Salisbury FC	12	6	4	2	21	9	22
6	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	6	3	4	24	14	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	5	5	2	26	18	20
9	Farnham	12	6	2	4	23	16	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	5	4	4	20	14	19
11	Dover	12	5	4	3	19	18	19
12	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
13	Horsham	13	4	6	3	15	15	18
14	Torquay	12	4	5	3	19	16	17
15	Chelmsford	11	2	9	0	17	11	15
16	Hemel Hempstead	13	3	5	5	11	14	14
17	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
19	AFC Totton	13	4	1	8	12	24	13
20	Chesham	12	3	1	8	16	26	10
21	Braintree Town	12	3	1	8	18	33	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	2	2	8	14	30	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	2	2	8	10	28	8
24	Slough	13	1	1	11	13	34	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Braintree Town	Dag & Red
Truro City	1-2 L	0-3 L
Slough	2-1 W	1-0 W
Farnborough	0-2 L	0-2 L
Dover	3-3 D	0-1 L
Horsham	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Braintree Town (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Braintree Town

LDLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Farnham England National League South	0-2	0-6	5	3	L
10/10	Truro City England National League South	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
06/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
26/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-2	3-4	6	5	L
15/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
12/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
05/09	Slough England National League South	1-1	2-1	11	8	W
31/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
29/08	Dover England National League South	1-2	3-3	3	4	D
22/08	Horsham England National League South	0-1	1-2	5	2	L

Dag & Red

WLWDLLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Chesham England National League South	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
17/10	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
10/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
26/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
08/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
05/09	Horsham England National League South	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
31/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
29/08	Truro City England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Torquay England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Braintree Town vs Dag & Red?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dag & Red win (55%). Probabilities: Braintree Town 21%, draw 24%, Dag & Red 55%.

How many goals are expected in Braintree Town vs Dag & Red?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Braintree Town 1.07 · Dag & Red 1.84), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Braintree Town vs Dag & Red?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.